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HabsMetrics

Next game · Thu, Dec 31, 2:00 p.m. EST · Benchmark International Arena

MTL at TBL

MTL

MTL

Montréal Canadiens

@

TBL

TBL

Tampa Bay Lightning

Full game page →

Model outlook

Full prediction →

No projection for this game yet.

Poisson goals model; no candidate has beaten it in walk-forward tests. Picked the winner in 60% of 94 graded games.

How they compare

Side by side · Last 10

MTLTBL

Goals

3.80Goals for / GP4.30
2.60Goals against / GP3.30
+12Goal diff+10

Results and form

8-0-2Record7-1-2
90.0%Points %80.0%
80.0%Home pts %100.0%
100.0%Road pts %60.0%

Shots and possession

27.0Shots for / GP31.0
30.0Shots against / GP24.9
14.1%Shooting %13.9%
0.913Save %0.868
1.054PDO1.006
53.3%Corsi %54.4%
54.5%Fenwick %54.5%

Special teams and discipline

18.5%Power play %29.4%
73.5%Penalty kill %75.0%
11.3PIM / GP7.4

Puck battles

51.1%Faceoff %51.1%
18.6Hits / GP20.6
15.6Blocks / GP12.9
3.9Takeaways / GP3.6
16.3Giveaways / GP15.2
MTL last 5W0
W
W
L
W
W
TBL last 5W0
W
W
W
L
W

Head-to-Head — All-Time

0MTL
2TBL
MTL: 6 GFTBL: 9 GF

Last met: Jan 1, 2024

Recent Meetings

May 3, 2026MTL @ TBL2 – 1MTL W
May 1, 2026TBL @ MTL1 – 0TBL W
Apr 29, 2026MTL @ TBL3 – 2MTL W
Apr 26, 2026TBL @ MTL3 – 2TBL W
Apr 24, 2026TBL @ MTL2 – 3MTL W

Injuries

League injury report →

Man-games lost

79

Injured now

6

Games played

17

  • Josh AndersonPersonal
    1 GMOut

    Anderson (personal) won't play against Toronto on Saturday, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports. · Nov 7

  • Ivan DemidovRight Ankle (Fracture)
    15 GMInjured Reserve

    Demidov (foot) skated Tuesday and could resume training with the team next week, Patrick Friolet of RDS reports. · Nov 4

  • Mike MathesonLower Body
    5 GMOut

    Matheson (lower body) is expected to miss two weeks, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports Saturday. · Oct 31

  • Sam MontembeaultLower Body
    13 GMInjured Reserve

    Montembeault (lower body) is considered day-to-day, according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports on Saturday. · Oct 31

  • Bryce PickfordUndisclosed
    17 GMInjured Reserve

    ir-nr · Sep 29

  • Lucas CondottaUndisclosed
    17 GMInjured Reserve

    ir-nr · Sep 29

Most games missed this season

  • Bryce Pickford17
  • Lucas Condotta17
  • Ivan Demidov15
  • Sam Montembeault13
  • Nick Suzukireturned6

GM = team games missed in the current stint. HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only, not gambling advice. Injury reports sourced from ESPN's public NHL injury feed.

Injuries

League injury report →

Man-games lost

21

Injured now

1

Games played

16

  • Yanni GourdeHip (Surgery)
    16 GMInjured Reserve

    Gourde (hip) will miss Thursday's game against Chicago, but he might be available at some point during the upcoming four-game road trip, per Benjamin Pierce of the Lightning's official site. · Nov 4

Most games missed this season

  • Yanni Gourde16
  • Zemgus Girgensonsreturned3
  • Erik Cernakreturned1
  • Victor Hedmanreturned1

GM = team games missed in the current stint. HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only, not gambling advice. Injury reports sourced from ESPN's public NHL injury feed.

Lineups

MTL

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
11:45
20Slafkovský
17:29
91Kapanen
15:56
13Caufield
16:21
L2
8:58
22Kreider
12:49
15Newhook
17:47
17Anderson
17:06
L3
6:56
85Texier
11:58
24Danault
19:21
76Bolduc
12:19
L4
5:38
63Xhekaj
6:19
71Evans
15:24
77Dach
13:11
D1
12:37
8Matheson
23:25
21Guhle
22:47
D2
13:28
48Hutson
22:04
53Dobson
19:35
D3
5:47
45Carrier
20:08
42Engstrom
10:23
32Fowler
59:38
Starter
75Dobes
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

  • Bryce Pickfordinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Lucas Condottainjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Nick Suzukiother · Upper Body
  • Sam Montembeaultinjured-reserve · Lower Body
  • Ivan Demidovinjured-reserve · Lower Body

TBL

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
9:31
LW
71Cirelli
19:46
59Guentzel
19:32
L2
9:00
93Goncalves
16:25
21Point
18:34
86Kucherov
20:02
L3
5:06
29Holmberg
14:11
C
95Mikheyev
13:17
L4
7:35
25Viel
8:51
94Geekie
10:09
49Sabourin
9:26
D1
13:26
74Carlson
21:41
90Moser
20:01
D2
13:18
81Cernak
20:58
27McDonagh
18:30
D3
12:17
51D'Astous
20:06
78Lilleberg
15:26
88Vasilevskiy
0:00
Starter
35Hildeby
61:44
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Not gambling advice.

Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning matchup preview: the HabsMetrics model’s win probability and projected score, a stat-by-stat team comparison, recent form and head-to-head history. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.