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LIVEScotiabank Arena · Nov 8
MTLMTL
2@0
TORTOR
MTL rest: 1dTOR rest: 3d

Period by Period

Stats not yet available

MTLaway
50%
at
TORhome
50%
Win probabilityToss-up
Model pick
Toss-up · No clear favourite · MTL 50% · TOR 50%

Key signals

Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceProjected GoaltendingTeam Offense (Goal Model)Injuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

MTL
3.1
–
TOR
3.1

Most likely final: TOR 3–2 MTL

TOR win
50%
MTL win
50%
Goes to OT/SO
24%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. TOR 3 – 2 MTL8%
  2. TOR 2 – 3 MTL8%
  3. TOR 4 – 3 MTL7%
  4. TOR 3 – 4 MTL7%
  5. TOR 2 – 1 MTL5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
55%
7+ total goals
45%
TOR by 2+
24%
MTL by 2+
25%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team DefenseTOR allowing +5% vs league average, MTL -2%.-0.21
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to TOR.+0.18
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) -0.04 g/gm; Jacob Fowler (MTL) +0.08 g/gm.-0.12
  • Team OffenseTOR scoring +7% vs league average, MTL +4% (time-weighted goal model).+0.09
  • InjuriesTOR without Kirill Marchenko, Nick Blankenburg, Max Domi; MTL without Josh Anderson, Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov.+0.00

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

MTL

Actual (from shift data)
L1
3:56
85Texier
7:06
24Danault
6:50
76Bolduc
7:53
L2
4:56
20Slafkovský
6:47
14Suzuki
7:21
13Caufield
6:11
L3
2:52
15Newhook
5:41
91Kapanen
5:58
77Dach
4:41
L4
3:11
22Kreider
5:21
71Evans
5:01
62Beck
3:46
D1
5:50
48Hutson
9:12
53Dobson
8:52
D2
6:25
21Guhle
8:48
45Carrier
8:00
D3
4:36
42Engstrom
5:34
72Xhekaj
5:32
32Fowler
23:56
Starter
75Dobes
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

TOR

Actual (from shift data)
L1
4:16
34Matthews
7:42
96Roslovic
7:44
53Cowan
7:08
L2
3:37
20Paul
6:43
91Tavares
6:34
88Nylander
7:03
L3
3:06
92McKenna
6:08
15Sissons
5:49
81Joshua
4:19
L4
2:01
24Duhaime
4:00
73Blueger
4:40
19MacEwen
2:42
D1
5:26
43Raddysh
11:22
22McCabe
8:55
D2
4:07
95Ekman-Larsson
8:08
28Stecher
5:46
D3
3:59
8Tanev
7:12
44Rielly
5:45
72Bobrovsky
23:56
Starter
70Akhtyamov
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice