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SCHEDULEDGrand Casino Arena · Nov 8
TBLTBL
—@—
MINMIN
TBL rest: 1dMIN rest: 0d
TBLaway
48%
at
MINhome
52%
Win probability4-pt gap
Model pick
MIN · 52% to win

Key signals

Team Defense (Goal Model)Market Consensus BlendHome IceRest / Back-to-BackInjuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

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Wild vs. Lightning: Minnesota Holds a Narrow Edge in a Near Coin Flip

The PuckMetrics model makes the Minnesota Wild narrow favourites over the Tampa Bay Lightning, with a 52% win probability against 48% for Tampa Bay. That gap is small enough that this one should be treated as a coin flip, and confidence in the pick is low.

The projected final score is Minnesota 3, Tampa Bay 2, the single most likely result. The model also gives this game a 25% chance of going to overtime, so a tight, one-goal finish is well within the range of outcomes. Nothing in the projection points to a clear separation between the two sides.

Expect a close game at Grand Casino Arena that could be decided late. The home side has a slight edge in the numbers, but the model is not willing to say much more than that.

Wild 52%, Lightning 48% in our model. Projected score: Minnesota 3, Tampa Bay 2, with a 25% overtime chance. Close enough to go either way. Analytics only, not betting advice. #NHL #MNWild

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For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Projected score

TBL
2.9
–
MIN
3.0

Most likely final: MIN 3–2 TBL

MIN win
52%
TBL win
48%
Goes to OT/SO
25%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. MIN 3 – 2 TBL9%
  2. MIN 2 – 3 TBL8%
  3. MIN 4 – 3 TBL7%
  4. MIN 3 – 4 TBL6%
  5. MIN 2 – 1 TBL6%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
50%
7+ total goals
40%
MIN by 2+
25%
TBL by 2+
23%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team DefenseMIN allowing -16% vs league average, TBL -3%.+0.43
  • Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.24
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to MIN.+0.18
  • RestMIN on the second night of a back-to-back.-0.17
  • InjuriesMIN without Michael McCarron, Jared Spurgeon, Brock Faber; TBL without Yanni Gourde.-0.14
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) +0.09 g/gm; Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) -0.04 g/gm.+0.14
  • Team OffenseMIN scoring +6% vs league average, TBL +9% (time-weighted goal model).-0.10

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

TBL

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
16:58
21Point
19:23
59Guentzel
20:36
86Kucherov
20:26
L2
10:44
38Hagel
16:48
93Goncalves
17:41
71Cirelli
14:53
L3
13:26
29Holmberg
16:28
28Girgensons
15:41
95Mikheyev
16:26
L4
6:26
25Viel
9:48
94Geekie
11:01
90Moser
13:00
D1
12:49
74Carlson
20:47
51D'Astous
17:02
D2
11:57
24Crozier
20:54
77Hedman
16:23
D3
11:54
81Cernak
16:05
27McDonagh
14:44
88Vasilevskiy
59:54
Starter
35Hildeby
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

MIN

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
16:06
97Kaprizov
19:28
14Eriksson Ek
18:52
12Boldy
19:26
L2
8:03
20Coleman
15:55
C
10Brink
17:58
L3
8:07
49Shabanov
16:56
13Trenin
13:53
22Yurov
16:29
L4
5:17
19Pitlick
7:32
78Sturm
10:19
38Hartman
11:27
D1
15:59
43Hughes
31:00
25Brodin
24:25
D2
9:26
3Maatta
18:20
24Bogosian
13:22
D3
6:30
26Kiersted
12:59
82Spacek
11:56
30Wallstedt
59:43
Starter
31Pickard
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice