Blackhawks vs Lightning Score & Box Score — Thu, Nov 5, 2026

FINALBenchmark International Arena · Nov 6

1@4

CHI rest: 0dTBL rest: 1d

Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

Game analysis

Lightning beat Blackhawks 4–1

I. Mikheyev scored the game-winner at 18:22 of the first.
The Lightning scored first and led the rest of the way.
A. Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 27 shots (.963) for the win.
The Lightning controlled play, outshooting the Blackhawks 35–27.
Power play: TBL 1/3, CHI 0/1.
HabsMetrics model had the Lightning as 75% favourites — it called this one.

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.

Three stars

1st star
I. Mikheyev
TBL · 2G 0A
2nd star
E. Cernak
TBL · 0G 2A
3rd star
R. McDonagh
TBL · 1G 0A

Scoring summary

1st

4:12TBLV. HedmanPPVideoAssists: A. Cirelli, B. Hagel0–1
18:22TBLI. Mikheyev VideoAssists: E. Cernak, P. Holmberg0–2

2nd

No scoring

3rd

2:38TBLR. McDonagh VideoAssists: J. Guentzel, B. Point0–3
5:08TBLI. Mikheyev VideoAssists: E. Cernak, Z. Girgensons0–4
19:10CHIR. Kantserov VideoAssists: S. Rinzel, E. Del Mastro1–4

Period by Period

Stats not yet available

Team Stats

CHITBL

Team statistics comparison
Shots	--	--
Hits	31	13
Blocked	8	9
Power Play	0/1	1/3
Faceoff %	37.7	62.3
Corsi %	--	--
xG	2.12	2.90
Giveaways	11	15
Takeaways	4	3

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player statistics for Tampa Bay Lightning
Player	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	TOI
Erik CernakD	0	2	2	+3	3	16:05
Ilya MikheyevRW	2	0	2	+1	3	16:26
Brayden PointC	0	1	1	0	0	19:23
Zemgus GirgensonsC	0	1	1	+2	5	15:41
Pontus HolmbergRW	0	1	1	+2	2	16:28
Jake GuentzelC	0	1	1	+1	1	20:36
Anthony CirelliC	0	1	1	0	2	14:53
Ryan McDonaghD	1	0	1	+3	3	14:44
Victor HedmanD	1	0	1	0	3	16:23
Brandon HagelLW	0	1	1	0	3	16:48
Andrei VasilevskiyG	--	--	36/37	--	.973	59:54
Dennis HildebyG	--	--	24/25	--	.960	00:00

Chicago Blackhawks

Player statistics for Chicago Blackhawks
Player	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	TOI
Sam RinzelD	0	1	1	-1	4	20:50
Ethan Del MastroD	0	1	1	0	0	14:06
Roman KantserovRW	1	0	1	-2	2	17:31
Ryan DonatoC	0	0	0	0	3	14:13
Oliver MooreC	0	0	0	0	3	13:53
Anton FrondellC	0	0	0	0	1	17:58
Ryan GreeneC	0	0	0	0	1	12:56
Andrew MangiapaneLW	0	0	0	0	1	12:39
Dillon BoucherLW	0	0	0	0	0	08:12
Tyler BertuzziLW	0	0	0	-2	0	16:56
Arvid SoderblomG	--	--	38/42	--	.905	60:00
Spencer KnightG	--	--	31/35	--	.886	00:00

CHIaway

25%

TBLhome

75%

Win probability50-pt gap

Model pick

TBL · 75% to win

Key signals

Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Rest / Back-to-BackHome IceMarket Consensus Blend

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

CHI

2.5

–

TBL

4.1

Most likely final: TBL 3–2 CHI · Actual: 4–1

TBL win: 75%
CHI win: 25%
Goes to OT/SO: 18%

Likeliest scorelines

TBL 3 – 2 CHI8%
TBL 4 – 3 CHI7%
TBL 2 – 3 CHI5%
TBL 4 – 2 CHI5%
TBL 3 – 4 CHI4%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 61%
7+ total goals: 50%
TBL by 2+: 50%
CHI by 2+: 9%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Team OffenseTBL scoring +9% vs league average, CHI -14% (time-weighted goal model).+0.71
Team DefenseTBL allowing -1% vs league average, CHI +13%.+0.39
RestCHI on the second night of a back-to-back.+0.19
Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to TBL.+0.18
Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.18
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) -0.06 g/gm; Spencer Knight (CHI) -0.04 g/gm.-0.03
InjuriesTBL without Zemgus Girgensons, Yanni Gourde; CHI without Patrick Kane, Bowen Byram.+0.01