SJSaway
29%at
MINhome
71%Win probability42-pt gap
Model pick
MIN · 71% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Team Offense (Goal Model)InjuriesHome IceProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALGrand Casino Arena · Nov 7
SJS rest: 1dMIN rest: 2d
Game analysis
Wild beat Sharks 4–1
- M. Shabanov scored the game-winner on the power play at 14:15 of the second.
- J. Wallstedt stopped 23 of 24 shots (.958) for the win.
- Power play: MIN 2/5, SJS 0/3.
- K. Kaprizov led all scorers with 1 goal and 3 assists.
- PuckMetrics model had the Wild as 71% favourites — it called this one.
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starQ. Hughes
MIN · 1G 2A
- 2nd starK. Kaprizov
MIN · 1G 3A
- 3rd starJ. Wallstedt
MIN · .958 SV%
Scoring summary
1st
- 7:55MINK. KaprizovPPAssists: Q. Hughes, M. Boldy0–1
2nd
- 12:11SJSM. CelebriniAssists: D. Orlov, W. Smith1–1
- 14:15MINM. ShabanovPPAssists: K. Kaprizov, Q. Hughes1–2
3rd
- 6:54MINQ. HughesAssists: K. Kaprizov, J. Brodin1–3
- 13:58MINZ. BogosianAssists: J. Eriksson Ek, K. Kaprizov1–4
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
SJSMIN
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 17 | 29 |
| Blocked | 18 | 17 |
| Power Play | 0/3 | 2/5 |
| Faceoff % | 48.3 | 51.7 |
| Corsi % | 43.9 | 56.1 |
| xG | -- | -- |
| Giveaways | 11 | 14 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 2 |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 3 | 19:28 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 31:00 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 | 19:26 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 18:52 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 16:56 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 13:22 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:25 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 17:58 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:53 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 07:32 | |
| -- | -- | 35/36 | -- | .972 | 59:43 | |
| -- | -- | 23/24 | -- | .958 | 00:00 |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:11 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 24:59 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11:14 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 17:13 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:19 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10:45 | |
| -- | -- | 45/49 | -- | .918 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 25/29 | -- | .862 | 00:00 |
Projected score
SJS
2.2
–
MIN
3.5
Most likely final: MIN 3–2 SJS · Actual: 4–1
- MIN win
- 71%
- SJS win
- 29%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 22%
Likeliest scorelines
- MIN 3 – 2 SJS10%
- MIN 2 – 1 SJS7%
- MIN 4 – 3 SJS6%
- MIN 2 – 3 SJS6%
- MIN 3 – 1 SJS5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 47%
- 7+ total goals
- 36%
- MIN by 2+
- 43%
- SJS by 2+
- 10%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseMIN allowing -15% vs league average, SJS +9%.+0.73
- Team OffenseMIN scoring +6% vs league average, SJS -11% (time-weighted goal model).+0.52
- InjuriesMIN without Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno; SJS without Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg.-0.18
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to MIN.+0.17
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) +0.08 g/gm; Yaroslav Askarov (SJS) -0.05 g/gm.+0.13
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.00
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
SJS
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Kyle Keyserinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Igor Chernyshovinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Alexander Wennberginjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Quentin Mustyinjured-reserve · Upper Body
MIN
Actual (from shift data)L1
16:06
Injured / Scratched
- Jared Spurgeoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Marcus Folignoinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Filip Gustavssonlong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- Nick Folignoinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Brock Faberinjured-reserve · Skull (Surgery)
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice