PITaway
44%at
MTLhome
56%Win probability12-pt gap
Model pick
MTL · 56% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesProjected GoaltendingTeam Offense (Goal Model)
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALCentre Bell · Oct 31
PIT rest: 1dMTL rest: 0d
Pittsburgh Penguins at Montréal Canadiens: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Canadiens beat Penguins 5–4
- J. Anderson scored the game-winner at 13:06 of the second.
- J. Fowler stopped 25 of 29 shots (.862) for the win.
- Power play: MTL 0/3, PIT 1/3.
- J. Anderson led all scorers with 2 goals and 1 assist.
- HabsMetrics model had the Canadiens as 56% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starJ. Anderson
MTL · 2G 1A
- 2nd starS. Crosby
PIT · 1G 2A
- 3rd starL. Hutson
MTL · 0G 2A
Scoring summary
1st
- 2:08PITE. KarlssonPPVideoAssists: S. Crosby, T. Novak1–0
- 2:41MTLO. KapanenVideoAssists: O. Beck, F. Xhekaj1–1
- 3:05MTLJ. AndersonVideoAssists: C. Kreider1–2
- 7:28PITT. NovakVideoAssists: R. Rakell, S. Crosby2–2
2nd
- 1:54MTLA. TexierVideoAssists: L. Hutson, P. Danault2–3
- 2:21MTLC. KreiderVideoAssists: A. Xhekaj, J. Anderson2–4
- 3:45PITR. RakellVideoAssists: E. Karlsson3–4
- 13:06MTLJ. AndersonVideoAssists: L. Hutson, J. Evans3–5
3rd
- 16:49PITS. CrosbyVideoAssists: E. Karlsson4–5
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
PITMTL
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 13 | 22 |
| Blocked | 9 | 22 |
| Power Play | 1/3 | 0/3 |
| Faceoff % | 42.9 | 57.1 |
| Corsi % | 59.8 | 40.2 |
| xG | 3.58 | 2.53 |
| Giveaways | 17 | 14 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 5 |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 14:58 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 5 | 12:10 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 1 | 23:47 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 07:34 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 1 | 17:40 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14:32 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:04 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 19:57 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 08:51 | |
| -- | -- | 44/48 | -- | .917 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 25/29 | -- | .862 | 00:00 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 23:37 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 20:23 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 17:58 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 21:58 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 09:59 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:30 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:34 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:16 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:22 | |
| -- | -- | 30/35 | -- | .857 | 57:40 | |
| -- | -- | 22/27 | -- | .815 | 00:00 |
Projected score
PIT
2.7
–
MTL
3.1
Most likely final: MTL 3–2 PIT · Actual: 5–4
- MTL win
- 56%
- PIT win
- 44%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 25%
Likeliest scorelines
- MTL 3 – 2 PIT9%
- MTL 2 – 3 PIT8%
- MTL 4 – 3 PIT7%
- MTL 2 – 1 PIT6%
- MTL 3 – 4 PIT6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 48%
- 7+ total goals
- 38%
- MTL by 2+
- 29%
- PIT by 2+
- 19%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseMTL allowing -6% vs league average, PIT +4%.+0.28
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to MTL.+0.17
- InjuriesMTL without Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki, Ivan Demidov; PIT without Elmer Soderblom, Bryan Rust, Justin Brazeau.-0.17
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jacob Fowler (MTL) +0.10 g/gm; Arturs Silovs (PIT) -0.03 g/gm.+0.13
- Team OffenseMTL scoring +1% vs league average, PIT +3% (time-weighted goal model).-0.05
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
PIT
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Bryan Rustinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Elmer Soderblominjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Trevor van Riemsdykinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Justin Brazeauother · Lower Body
- Ryan Gravesinjured-reserve · Knee
MTL
Actual (from shift data)L1
13:41
Injured / Scratched
- Bryce Pickfordinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Lucas Condottainjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Mike Mathesonother · Lower Body
- Kirby Dachother · Illness
- Nick Suzukiother · Upper Body
- Sam Montembeaultinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Ivan Demidovinjured-reserve · Lower Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice