UTAaway
43%at
MTLhome
57%Win probability14-pt gap
Model pick
MTL · 57% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceProjected GoaltendingTeam Offense (Goal Model)Injuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINAL / OTCentre Bell · Nov 6
UTA rest: 1dMTL rest: 1d
Utah Mammoth at Montréal Canadiens: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Canadiens beat Mammoth 5–4 in overtime
- C. Caufield scored the game-winner at 0:30 in overtime.
- The Canadiens came back from a 2-goal deficit.
- J. Dobes stopped 16 of 20 shots (.800) for the win.
- The Canadiens controlled play, outshooting the Mammoth 35–20.
- Power play: MTL 1/4, UTA 3/5.
- HabsMetrics model had the Canadiens as 57% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starN. Suzuki
MTL · 1G 2A
- 2nd starC. Caufield
MTL · 1G 0A
- 3rd starL. Cooley
UTA · 3G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
- 1:42UTAL. CooleyVideoAssists: N. Schmidt, V. Trocheck1–0
- 9:24UTAL. CooleyPPVideoAssists: N. Schmaltz, M. Sergachev2–0
- 15:25MTLN. SuzukiVideoAssists: J. Slafkovský, N. Dobson2–1
- 17:10MTLA. XhekajVideoAssists: K. Dach, A. Newhook2–2
2nd
- 11:05UTAL. CooleyPPVideoAssists: N. Schmaltz, C. Keller3–2
3rd
- 1:09MTLK. DachPPVideoAssists: N. Suzuki, L. Hutson3–3
- 7:14UTAN. SchmaltzPPVideoAssists: L. Cooley, D. Guenther4–3
- 14:54MTLA. EngstromVideoAssists: J. Evans, N. Dobson4–4
OT
- 0:30MTLC. CaufieldVideoAssists: L. Hutson, N. Suzuki4–5
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
UTAMTL
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 30 | 17 |
| Blocked | 15 | 14 |
| Power Play | 3/5 | 1/4 |
| Faceoff % | 42.9 | 57.1 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 3.54 | 4.66 |
| Giveaways | 11 | 19 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 1 |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 4 | 20:04 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 11:28 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 27:00 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 20:35 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 18:25 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:14 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 19:41 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 10:48 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 09:53 | |
| -- | -- | 35/39 | -- | .897 | 60:30 | |
| -- | -- | 16/20 | -- | .800 | 00:00 |
Utah Mammoth
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 3 | 19:31 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 3 | 17:30 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 22:24 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 17:20 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 03:59 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 27:31 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18:46 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:43 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:12 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 05:41 | |
| -- | -- | 48/53 | -- | .906 | 60:30 | |
| -- | -- | 30/35 | -- | .857 | 00:00 |
Projected score
UTA
2.9
–
MTL
3.4
Most likely final: MTL 3–2 UTA · Actual: 5–4
- MTL win
- 57%
- UTA win
- 43%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- MTL 3 – 2 UTA8%
- MTL 4 – 3 UTA7%
- MTL 2 – 3 UTA7%
- MTL 3 – 4 UTA6%
- MTL 2 – 1 UTA5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 57%
- 7+ total goals
- 47%
- MTL by 2+
- 31%
- UTA by 2+
- 20%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseMTL allowing -3% vs league average, UTA +4%.+0.20
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to MTL.+0.18
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jacob Fowler (MTL) +0.08 g/gm; Karel Vejmelka (UTA) -0.10 g/gm.+0.18
- Team OffenseMTL scoring +3% vs league average, UTA +6% (time-weighted goal model).-0.09
- InjuriesMTL without Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov; UTA without Kailer Yamamoto, John Marino, Maveric Lamoureux.-0.04
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
UTA
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Kailer Yamamotoother · Upper Body
- Maveric Lamoureuxinjured-reserve · Shoulder
- John Marinoinjured-reserve · Upper Body
MTL
Actual (from shift data)L1
15:59
Injured / Scratched
- Bryce Pickfordinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Lucas Condottainjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Mike Mathesonother · Lower Body
- Sam Montembeaultinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Ivan Demidovinjured-reserve · Right Ankle (Fracture)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice