WPGaway
39%at
TBLhome
61%Win probability22-pt gap
Model pick
TBL · 61% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceMarket Consensus BlendProjected GoaltendingInjuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
← Back to Dashboard
FINALBenchmark International Arena · Oct 29
WPG rest: 0dTBL rest: 3d
Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Lightning beat Jets 6–4
- B. Hagel scored the game-winner at 19:03 of the second.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- A. Vasilevskiy stopped 17 of 21 shots (.810) for the win.
- The Lightning controlled play, outshooting the Jets 31–21.
- Power play: TBL 1/3, WPG 0/2.
- HabsMetrics model had the Lightning as 61% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starP. Holmberg
TBL · 1G 3A
- 2nd starB. Hagel
TBL · 1G 2A
- 3rd starA. Cirelli
TBL · 1G 2A
Scoring summary
1st
- 2:20TBLB. PointVideoAssists: N. Kucherov, J. Guentzel0–1
- 17:45WPGN. PionkVideoAssists: C. Perfetti, M. Scheifele1–1
2nd
- 9:43TBLC. GeekieVideoAssists: D. James, J. Viel1–2
- 15:56TBLA. CirelliPPVideoAssists: P. Holmberg, G. Goncalves1–3
- 18:07TBLJ. CarlsonVideoAssists: P. Holmberg, B. Hagel1–4
- 19:03TBLB. HagelVideoAssists: A. Cirelli, P. Holmberg1–5
3rd
- 7:00WPGD. SambergVideoAssists: C. Perfetti, M. Scheifele2–5
- 8:50WPGN. PionkVideoAssists: D. Mercer, K. Connor3–5
- 17:12WPGK. ConnorVideoAssists: M. Scheifele, D. Samberg4–5
- 18:29TBLP. HolmbergENVideoAssists: A. Cirelli, B. Hagel4–6
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
WPGTBL
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 28 | 17 |
| Blocked | 14 | 10 |
| Power Play | 0/2 | 1/3 |
| Faceoff % | 61.4 | 38.6 |
| Corsi % | 44.4 | 55.6 |
| xG | 2.08 | 4.91 |
| Giveaways | 11 | 16 |
| Takeaways | 2 | 1 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 1 | 17:54 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 1 | 19:00 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 21:47 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:48 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20:12 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11:22 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16:13 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 13:12 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:32 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 12:15 | |
| -- | -- | 33/37 | -- | .892 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 17/21 | -- | .810 | 00:00 |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:31 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 17:26 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 22:29 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 3 | 19:09 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 22:03 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 14:33 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:08 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:01 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 11:53 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 08:48 | |
| -- | -- | 23/29 | -- | .793 | 40:00 | |
| -- | -- | 8/14 | -- | .571 | 18:58 |
Projected score
WPG
2.5
–
TBL
3.2
Most likely final: TBL 3–2 WPG · Actual: 6–4
- TBL win
- 61%
- WPG win
- 39%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- TBL 3 – 2 WPG9%
- TBL 2 – 3 WPG8%
- TBL 4 – 3 WPG7%
- TBL 2 – 1 WPG7%
- TBL 3 – 4 WPG6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 48%
- 7+ total goals
- 38%
- TBL by 2+
- 33%
- WPG by 2+
- 16%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseTBL scoring +6% vs league average, WPG -10% (time-weighted goal model).+0.46
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to TBL.+0.15
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.15
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) -0.04 g/gm; Stuart Skinner (WPG) +0.03 g/gm.-0.07
- InjuriesTBL without Zemgus Girgensons, Yanni Gourde; WPG without Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey.+0.03
- Team DefenseTBL allowing -2% vs league average, WPG -3%.-0.01
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
WPG
Actual (from shift data)D3
9:51
15:50
24Fleury
15:44
Injured / Scratched
- Nick Bjugstadlong-term-injured-reserve · Left Pectoral (Surgery)
- Garrett Browninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Vladislav Namestnikovinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Josh Morrisseyinjured-reserve · Right Wrist
TBL
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Yanni Gourdeinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- Zemgus Girgensonsother · Lower Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice