WPGaway
38%at
MTLhome
62%Win probability24-pt gap
Model pick
MTL · 62% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)InjuriesHome IceProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINAL / OTCentre Bell · Nov 4
WPG rest: 2dMTL rest: 3d
Winnipeg Jets at Montréal Canadiens: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Canadiens fall to Jets 4–5 in overtime
- D. Samberg scored the game-winner at 3:30 in overtime.
- The Jets came back from a 4-goal deficit.
- S. Skinner stopped 18 of 22 shots (.818) for the win.
- The Jets controlled play, outshooting the Canadiens 47–22.
- Power play: WPG 1/5, MTL 2/4.
- Model miss: the Jets won with only a 38% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starK. Connor
WPG · 2G 0A
- 2nd starC. Caufield
MTL · 2G 0A
- 3rd starD. Samberg
WPG · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
- 3:05MTLO. BeckVideoAssists: F. Xhekaj, A. Xhekaj0–1
- 18:18MTLJ. AndersonVideoAssists: C. Kreider, K. Guhle0–2
2nd
- 4:00MTLC. CaufieldPPVideoAssists: N. Dobson, J. Slafkovský0–3
3rd
OT
- 3:30WPGD. SambergVideoAssists: A. Lowry, G. Vilardi5–4
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
WPGMTL
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 20 | 16 |
| Blocked | 9 | 23 |
| Power Play | 1/5 | 2/4 |
| Faceoff % | 51.9 | 48.1 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 4.95 | 2.61 |
| Giveaways | 10 | 14 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 3 |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 16:30 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 17:22 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:45 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:18 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 08:54 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:05 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:13 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 09:27 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 24:14 | |
| -- | -- | 58/63 | -- | .921 | 63:30 | |
| -- | -- | 42/47 | -- | .894 | 00:00 |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 15:25 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 8 | 27:50 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 18:38 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 10:44 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 28:09 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 25:14 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 06:53 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 18:02 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 16:07 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 11:06 | |
| -- | -- | 34/38 | -- | .895 | 62:18 | |
| -- | -- | 18/22 | -- | .818 | 00:00 |
Projected score
WPG
2.4
–
MTL
3.1
Most likely final: MTL 3–2 WPG · Actual: 4–5
- MTL win
- 62%
- WPG win
- 38%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- MTL 3 – 2 WPG10%
- MTL 2 – 3 WPG8%
- MTL 2 – 1 WPG8%
- MTL 4 – 3 WPG7%
- MTL 1 – 2 WPG6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 44%
- 7+ total goals
- 34%
- MTL by 2+
- 33%
- WPG by 2+
- 15%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseMTL scoring +3% vs league average, WPG -12% (time-weighted goal model).+0.45
- Team DefenseMTL allowing -5% vs league average, WPG +5%.+0.28
- InjuriesMTL without Mike Matheson, Kirby Dach, Nick Suzuki; WPG without Nick Bjugstad, Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey.-0.26
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to MTL.+0.14
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jacob Fowler (MTL) +0.08 g/gm; Stuart Skinner (WPG) -0.04 g/gm.+0.12
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
WPG
Actual (from shift data)L4
0:36
D2
9:08
38Ferraro
19:13
17:39
Injured / Scratched
- Nick Bjugstadlong-term-injured-reserve · Left Pectoral (Surgery)
- Vladislav Namestnikovinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Josh Morrisseyinjured-reserve · Right Wrist
- Garrett Browninjured-reserve · Lower Body
MTL
Actual (from shift data)L1
11:22
Injured / Scratched
- Bryce Pickfordinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Lucas Condottainjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Mike Mathesonother · Lower Body
- Kirby Dachother · Illness
- Nick Suzukiother · Hand
- Sam Montembeaultinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Ivan Demidovinjured-reserve · Right Foot (Fracture)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice