MTLaway
44%at
STLhome
56%Win probability12-pt gap
Model pick
STL · 56% to win
Key signals
Home IceInjuriesTeam Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Projected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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StarterBackup
FINALEnterprise Center · Oct 28
MTL rest: 2dSTL rest: 3d
Game analysis
Canadiens beat Blues 2–0
- Z. Bolduc scored the game-winner at 8:37 of the second.
- The Canadiens scored first and led the rest of the way.
- J. Fowler posted a 46-save shutout.
- The Canadiens won despite being outshot 46–21.
- M. Matheson led all scorers with 0 goals and 2 assists.
- Model miss: the Canadiens won with only a 44% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starJ. Fowler
MTL · 1.000 SV%
- 2nd starM. Matheson
MTL · 0G 2A
- 3rd starZ. Bolduc
MTL · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
No scoring
2nd
- 8:37MTLZ. BolducVideoAssists: M. Matheson, A. Texier1–0
3rd
- 2:17MTLF. XhekajVideoAssists: M. Matheson, K. Dach2–0
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
MTLSTL
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 19 | 26 |
| Blocked | 18 | 11 |
| Power Play | 0/3 | 0/3 |
| Faceoff % | 40.7 | 59.3 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 2.41 | 4.36 |
| Giveaways | 18 | 19 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 6 |
St. Louis Blues
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:47 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16:41 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18:24 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17:57 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 21:57 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 15:19 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:46 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15:01 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 23:30 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17:01 | |
| -- | -- | 33/35 | -- | .943 | 54:06 | |
| -- | -- | 18/20 | -- | .900 | 00:00 |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 23:25 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 13:11 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 12:19 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 06:19 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:58 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:29 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:56 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 22:47 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | |
| -- | -- | 61/61 | -- | 1.000 | 59:38 | |
| -- | -- | 46/46 | -- | 1.000 | 00:00 |
Projected score
MTL
2.7
–
STL
3.1
Most likely final: STL 3–2 MTL · Actual: 0–2
- STL win
- 56%
- MTL win
- 44%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 25%
Likeliest scorelines
- STL 3 – 2 MTL9%
- STL 2 – 3 MTL8%
- STL 4 – 3 MTL7%
- STL 2 – 1 MTL6%
- STL 3 – 4 MTL6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 50%
- 7+ total goals
- 39%
- STL by 2+
- 29%
- MTL by 2+
- 19%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to STL.+0.16
- InjuriesSTL without Ross Johnston, Tyler Tucker, Logan Mailloux; MTL without Nick Suzuki, Ivan Demidov.+0.16
- Team OffenseSTL scoring +3% vs league average, MTL +0% (time-weighted goal model).+0.08
- Team DefenseSTL allowing -0% vs league average, MTL -1%.-0.02
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Joel Hofer (STL) +0.04 g/gm; Jacob Fowler (MTL) +0.04 g/gm.+0.00
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
MTL
Actual (from shift data)L1
11:45
Injured / Scratched
- Bryce Pickfordinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Lucas Condottainjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Nick Suzukiother · Upper Body
- Sam Montembeaultinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Ivan Demidovinjured-reserve · Lower Body
STL
Actual (from shift data)L3
9:25
L4
5:19
54:06
30Hofer
0:00
Injured / Scratched
- Torey Kruglong-term-injured-reserve · Left Ankle
- Ross Johnstoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Dillon Dubeinjured-reserve · Neck
- Tyler Tuckerinjured-reserve · Left Knee (Surgery)
- Logan Maillouxinjured-reserve · Hand (Surgery)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice