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HabsMetrics

Next game · Sat, Dec 26, 7:00 p.m. EST · Centre Bell

MTL vs TOR

MTL

MTL

Montréal Canadiens

vs

TOR

TOR

Toronto Maple Leafs

Full game page →

Model outlook

Full prediction →

No projection for this game yet.

Poisson goals model; no candidate has beaten it in walk-forward tests. Picked the winner in 60% of 94 graded games.

How they compare

Side by side · Last 10

MTLTOR

Goals

3.80Goals for / GP3.60
2.60Goals against / GP3.20
+12Goal diff+4

Results and form

8-0-2Record5-5-0
90.0%Points %50.0%
80.0%Home pts %40.0%
100.0%Road pts %60.0%

Shots and possession

27.0Shots for / GP28.3
30.0Shots against / GP28.9
14.1%Shooting %12.7%
0.913Save %0.889
1.054PDO1.016
53.3%Corsi %46.1%
54.5%Fenwick %48.8%

Special teams and discipline

18.5%Power play %27.6%
73.5%Penalty kill %80.0%
11.3PIM / GP11.0

Puck battles

51.1%Faceoff %52.1%
18.6Hits / GP21.9
15.6Blocks / GP14.4
3.9Takeaways / GP3.9
16.3Giveaways / GP15.5
MTL last 5W0
W
W
L
W
W
TOR last 5L0
L
L
W
L
L

Head-to-Head — This Season

3MTL
0TOR
MTL: 11 GFTOR: 6 GF

Last met: Sep 29, 2026

Recent Meetings

Nov 8, 2026MTL @ TOR4 – 2MTL W
Sep 29, 2026MTL @ TOR3 – 2MTL W
Sep 19, 2026MTL @ TOR4 – 1MTL W
Sep 19, 2026TOR @ MTL3 – 4MTL W
Mar 10, 2026TOR @ MTL1 – 3MTL W

Injuries

League injury report →

Man-games lost

79

Injured now

6

Games played

17

  • Josh AndersonPersonal
    1 GMOut

    Anderson (personal) won't play against Toronto on Saturday, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports. · Nov 7

  • Ivan DemidovRight Ankle (Fracture)
    15 GMInjured Reserve

    Demidov (foot) skated Tuesday and could resume training with the team next week, Patrick Friolet of RDS reports. · Nov 4

  • Mike MathesonLower Body
    5 GMOut

    Matheson (lower body) is expected to miss two weeks, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports Saturday. · Oct 31

  • Sam MontembeaultLower Body
    13 GMInjured Reserve

    Montembeault (lower body) is considered day-to-day, according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports on Saturday. · Oct 31

  • Bryce PickfordUndisclosed
    17 GMInjured Reserve

    ir-nr · Sep 29

  • Lucas CondottaUndisclosed
    17 GMInjured Reserve

    ir-nr · Sep 29

Most games missed this season

  • Bryce Pickford17
  • Lucas Condotta17
  • Ivan Demidov15
  • Sam Montembeault13
  • Nick Suzukireturned6

GM = team games missed in the current stint. HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only, not gambling advice. Injury reports sourced from ESPN's public NHL injury feed.

Injuries

League injury report →

Man-games lost

124

Injured now

9

Games played

18

  • Morgan RiellyLower Body
    1 GMDay-to-Day

    day-to-day · Nov 7

  • Kirill MarchenkoLower Body
    5 GMInjured Reserve

    ir · Oct 29

  • Miles WoodUndisclosed
    11 GMLong-Term IR

    Wood (undisclosed) was transferred to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports. · Oct 28

  • Nick BlankenburgUpper Body
    6 GMInjured Reserve

    Blankenburg (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Maple Leafs on Friday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports. · Oct 23

  • Marshall RifaiLower Body
    7 GMInjured Reserve

    ir · Oct 22

  • Max DomiBack (Surgery)
    17 GMLong-Term IR

    Domi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia. · Sep 30

  • Cade WebberElbow
    18 GMInjured Reserve

    ir-nr · Sep 29

  • Elvis MerzlikinsShoulder (Surgery)
    18 GMLong-Term IR

    Merzlikins is expected to miss 4-6 months to begin the 2026-27 regular season while recovering from a shoulder injury, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet. · Sep 29

  • William VilleneuveKnee (Surgery)
    18 GMInjured Reserve

    ir-nr · Sep 29

Most games missed this season

  • Cade Webber18
  • Elvis Merzlikins18
  • William Villeneuve18
  • Max Domi17
  • Miles Wood11

GM = team games missed in the current stint. HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only, not gambling advice. Injury reports sourced from ESPN's public NHL injury feed.

Lineups

TOR

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
4:37
96Roslovic
18:43
34Matthews
19:00
88Nylander
19:14
L2
1:59
20Paul
17:35
15Sissons
14:17
71Lettieri
11:54
L3
92McKenna
14:50
53Cowan
15:30
RW
L4
6:17
24Duhaime
11:11
73Blueger
14:27
19MacEwen
10:12
D1
8:40
43Raddysh
23:49
22McCabe
18:17
D2
10:41
28Stecher
22:04
44Rielly
19:27
D3
5:55
95Ekman-Larsson
19:14
36Mermis
13:33
72Bobrovsky
58:55
Starter
41Stolarz
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

  • Dakota Joshualong-term-injured-reserve · Abdomen
  • Max Domilong-term-injured-reserve · Back (Surgery)
  • Cade Webberinjured-reserve · Elbow
  • Elvis Merzlikinslong-term-injured-reserve · Shoulder (Surgery)
  • William Villeneuveinjured-reserve · Knee (Surgery)
  • Nick Blankenburginjured-reserve · Upper Body
  • Marshall Rifaiinjured-reserve · Lower Body
  • John Tavaresinjured-reserve · Lower Body
  • Kirill Marchenkoother · Lower Body
  • Miles Woodinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Chris Tanevinjured-reserve · Upper Body

MTL

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
11:45
20Slafkovský
17:29
91Kapanen
15:56
13Caufield
16:21
L2
8:58
22Kreider
12:49
15Newhook
17:47
17Anderson
17:06
L3
6:56
85Texier
11:58
24Danault
19:21
76Bolduc
12:19
L4
5:38
63Xhekaj
6:19
71Evans
15:24
77Dach
13:11
D1
12:37
8Matheson
23:25
21Guhle
22:47
D2
13:28
48Hutson
22:04
53Dobson
19:35
D3
5:47
45Carrier
20:08
42Engstrom
10:23
32Fowler
59:38
Starter
75Dobes
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

  • Bryce Pickfordinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Lucas Condottainjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Nick Suzukiother · Upper Body
  • Sam Montembeaultinjured-reserve · Lower Body
  • Ivan Demidovinjured-reserve · Lower Body

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Not gambling advice.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens matchup preview: the HabsMetrics model’s win probability and projected score, a stat-by-stat team comparison, recent form and head-to-head history. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.