TORaway
60%at
CGYhome
40%Win probability20-pt gap
Model pick
TOR · 60% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALScotiabank Saddledome · Oct 27
TOR rest: 2dCGY rest: 1d
Game analysis
Flames beat Maple Leafs 5–2
- M. Gridin scored the game-winner on the power play at 0:25 of the second.
- The Flames scored first and led the rest of the way.
- 2 empty-net goals sealed it late.
- D. Cooley stopped 26 of 28 shots (.929) for the win.
- Power play: CGY 1/5, TOR 0/2.
- Model miss: the Flames won with only a 40% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starM. Gridin
CGY · 2G 1A
- 2nd starJ. Farabee
CGY · 1G 1A
- 3rd starZ. Parekh
CGY · 0G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
- 10:05CGYM. GridinVideoAssists: M. Pospisil, S. Nemec0–1
- 11:50CGYM. BacklundVideoAssists: M. Coronato, J. Farabee0–2
2nd
3rd
- 6:06TORW. NylanderVideoAssists: J. Roslovic, A. Matthews2–3
- 18:35CGYJ. FarabeeENVideoAssists: M. Coronato, Y. Kuznetsov2–4
- 19:21CGYM. PospisilENVideoAssists: M. Gridin, S. Nemec2–5
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
TORCGY
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 23 | 24 |
| Blocked | 16 | 4 |
| Power Play | 0/2 | 1/5 |
| Faceoff % | 58.6 | 41.4 |
| Corsi % | 39.5 | 60.5 |
| xG | 2.41 | 4.10 |
| Giveaways | 12 | 13 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 6 |
Calgary Flames
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 5 | 16:11 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 18:44 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 12:20 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 24:08 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 21:51 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 18:32 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 20:11 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:57 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:11 | |
| -- | -- | 38/40 | -- | .950 | 59:38 | |
| -- | -- | 26/28 | -- | .929 | 00:00 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 19:00 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 15:30 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19:14 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 18:43 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 22:04 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 19:27 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:17 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 10:12 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 17:35 | |
| -- | -- | 44/49 | -- | .898 | 58:55 | |
| -- | -- | 29/34 | -- | .853 | 00:00 |
Projected score
TOR
3.5
–
CGY
2.9
Most likely final: CGY 2–3 TOR · Actual: 5–2
- CGY win
- 40%
- TOR win
- 60%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- CGY 2 – 3 TOR8%
- CGY 3 – 4 TOR7%
- CGY 3 – 2 TOR7%
- CGY 4 – 3 TOR6%
- CGY 1 – 2 TOR5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 57%
- 7+ total goals
- 47%
- CGY by 2+
- 17%
- TOR by 2+
- 33%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseCGY scoring -11% vs league average, TOR +10% (time-weighted goal model).-0.62
- Team DefenseCGY allowing +9% vs league average, TOR +3%.-0.16
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to CGY.+0.16
- InjuriesCGY without Samuel Honzek, Mikael Backlund, Jonathan Huberdeau; TOR without Nick Blankenburg, John Tavares, Miles Wood.+0.13
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Dustin Wolf (CGY) -0.12 g/gm; Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) -0.01 g/gm.-0.11
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
TOR
Actual (from shift data)D3
5:55
19:14
36Mermis
13:33
Injured / Scratched
- Dakota Joshualong-term-injured-reserve · Abdomen
- Max Domilong-term-injured-reserve · Back (Surgery)
- Cade Webberinjured-reserve · Elbow
- Elvis Merzlikinslong-term-injured-reserve · Shoulder (Surgery)
- William Villeneuveinjured-reserve · Knee (Surgery)
- Marshall Rifaiinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- John Tavaresinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Miles Woodinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Chris Tanevinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Nick Blankenburginjured-reserve · Upper Body
CGY
Actual (from shift data)L2
7:24
D3
11:05
17:47
16:14
Injured / Scratched
- Samuel Honzekinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Jonathan Huberdeauinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice