TORaway
58%at
VANhome
42%Win probability16-pt gap
Model pick
TOR · 58% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)InjuriesTeam Offense (Goal Model)Market Consensus BlendHome Ice
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALRogers Arena · Oct 31
TOR rest: 1dVAN rest: 0d
Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Maple Leafs beat Canucks 4–2
- Z. MacEwen scored the game-winner at 12:34 of the second.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- A. Stolarz stopped 26 of 28 shots (.929) for the win.
- Power play: TOR 0/2, VAN 1/4.
- The Maple Leafs dominated the dot, winning 61% of faceoffs.
- HabsMetrics model had the Maple Leafs as 58% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starW. Nylander
TOR · 1G 1A
- 2nd starE. Pettersson
VAN · 0G 0A
- 3rd starA. Matthews
TOR · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
- 1:23TORW. NylanderVideoAssists: N. Paul, J. McCabe1–0
- 10:30VANB. BoeserPPVideoAssists: F. Hronek, J. Lekkerimäki1–1
2nd
- 3:47TORA. MatthewsVideoAssists: D. Raddysh, J. Roslovic2–1
- 12:34TORZ. MacEwenVideoAssists: M. Rielly, T. Blueger3–1
3rd
- 9:27VANM. SassonVideoAssists: B. Gallagher3–2
- 18:24TORT. BluegerENVideoAssists: W. Nylander, A. Stolarz4–2
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
TORVAN
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 31 | 26 |
| Blocked | 21 | 14 |
| Power Play | 0/2 | 1/4 |
| Faceoff % | 61.1 | 38.9 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 3.82 | 2.84 |
| Giveaways | 11 | 10 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 1 |
Vancouver Canucks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:02 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 19:00 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10:10 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 26:57 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 19:45 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:58 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13:38 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:13 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 17:04 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 21:09 | |
| -- | -- | 35/39 | -- | .897 | 58:13 | |
| -- | -- | 24/28 | -- | .857 | 00:00 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 15:24 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 19:43 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 09:16 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:32 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17:42 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:19 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:58 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:13 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:49 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | |
| -- | -- | 38/40 | -- | .950 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 26/28 | -- | .929 | 00:00 |
Projected score
TOR
3.7
–
VAN
3.2
Most likely final: VAN 3–4 TOR · Actual: 2–4
- VAN win
- 42%
- TOR win
- 58%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 22%
Likeliest scorelines
- VAN 3 – 4 TOR7%
- VAN 2 – 3 TOR7%
- VAN 4 – 3 TOR7%
- VAN 3 – 2 TOR6%
- VAN 4 – 5 TOR5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 66%
- 7+ total goals
- 56%
- VAN by 2+
- 20%
- TOR by 2+
- 33%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseVAN allowing +24% vs league average, TOR +6%.-0.44
- InjuriesVAN without Filip Chytil; TOR without Kirill Marchenko, Nick Blankenburg, John Tavares.+0.39
- Team OffenseVAN scoring -4% vs league average, TOR +9% (time-weighted goal model).-0.39
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.18
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to VAN.+0.17
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Leevi Meriläinen (VAN) -0.01 g/gm; Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) -0.05 g/gm.+0.04
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
TOR
Actual (from shift data)D3
12:15
18:22
28Stecher
16:48
Injured / Scratched
- Kirill Marchenkoinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Elvis Merzlikinslong-term-injured-reserve · Shoulder (Surgery)
- Nick Blankenburginjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Marshall Rifaiinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- John Tavaresinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Max Domilong-term-injured-reserve · Back (Surgery)
- Cade Webberinjured-reserve · Elbow
- William Villeneuveinjured-reserve · Knee (Surgery)
- Miles Woodlong-term-injured-reserve · Undisclosed
VAN
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Filip Chytilinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Akil Thomasinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Mackenzie MacEacherninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Thatcher Demkoinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice