TORaway
48%at
SEAhome
52%Win probability4-pt gap
Model pick
SEA · 52% to win
Key signals
InjuriesHome IceMarket Consensus BlendTeam Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALClimate Pledge Arena · Oct 29
TOR rest: 1dSEA rest: 3d
Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Kraken beat Maple Leafs 5–4
- B. Montour scored the game-winner at 19:27 of the third.
- P. Grubauer stopped 18 of 22 shots (.818) for the win.
- The Kraken won despite being outshot 22–17.
- Power play: SEA 1/5, TOR 2/3.
- G. McKenna led all scorers with 2 goals and 1 assist.
- HabsMetrics model had the Kraken as 52% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starB. Montour
SEA · 1G 0A
- 2nd starC. Stephenson
SEA · 1G 1A
- 3rd starJ. Mahura
SEA · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
- 1:59SEAB. CattonVideoAssists: M. Samoskevich0–1
- 19:14TORG. McKennaPPVideoAssists: A. Matthews, D. Raddysh1–1
2nd
- 0:16SEAJ. MahuraVideoAssists: B. Meyers, F. Gaudreau1–2
- 1:46TORG. McKennaPPVideoAssists: A. Matthews, J. Roslovic2–2
- 3:33SEAC. StephensonPPVideoAssists: V. Dunn, M. Beniers2–3
- 10:58SEAR. EvansVideoAssists: M. Samoskevich, C. Stephenson2–4
3rd
- 8:02TORJ. RoslovicVideoAssists: E. Cowan, T. Stecher3–4
- 18:30TORA. MatthewsVideoAssists: D. Raddysh, G. McKenna4–4
- 19:27SEAB. MontourVideoAssists: J. Eberle, M. Beniers4–5
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
TORSEA
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 32 | 23 |
| Blocked | 11 | 11 |
| Power Play | 2/3 | 1/5 |
| Faceoff % | 52.5 | 47.5 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 1.93 | 2.24 |
| Giveaways | 15 | 16 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 1 |
Seattle Kraken
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19:08 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:21 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:26 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:38 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:49 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 1 | 27:10 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 11:07 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 23:49 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 18:13 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 15:05 | |
| -- | -- | 36/40 | -- | .900 | 59:51 | |
| -- | -- | 17/21 | -- | .810 | 00:00 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20:08 | |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15:33 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 24:49 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 17:28 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 19:08 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21:48 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:49 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 08:21 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:19 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:35 | |
| -- | -- | 27/32 | -- | .844 | 59:16 | |
| -- | -- | 12/17 | -- | .706 | 00:00 |
Projected score
TOR
3.2
–
SEA
3.3
Most likely final: SEA 3–2 TOR · Actual: 5–4
- SEA win
- 52%
- TOR win
- 48%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- SEA 3 – 2 TOR8%
- SEA 2 – 3 TOR7%
- SEA 4 – 3 TOR7%
- SEA 3 – 4 TOR7%
- SEA 2 – 1 TOR4%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 61%
- 7+ total goals
- 50%
- SEA by 2+
- 26%
- TOR by 2+
- 24%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- InjuriesSEA without Jared McCann, Ryan Lindgren; TOR without Kirill Marchenko, Nick Blankenburg, John Tavares.+0.22
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +4% applied to SEA.+0.12
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.12
- Team OffenseSEA scoring +5% vs league average, TOR +9% (time-weighted goal model).-0.11
- Team DefenseSEA allowing +7% vs league average, TOR +5%.-0.05
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Philipp Grubauer (SEA) +0.02 g/gm; Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) -0.01 g/gm.+0.03
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
TOR
Actual (from shift data)D3
7:44
16:45
36Mermis
9:52
Injured / Scratched
- Max Domilong-term-injured-reserve · Back (Surgery)
- Cade Webberinjured-reserve · Elbow
- Elvis Merzlikinslong-term-injured-reserve · Shoulder (Surgery)
- William Villeneuveinjured-reserve · Knee (Surgery)
- Nick Blankenburginjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Marshall Rifaiinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- John Tavaresinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Kirill Marchenkoother · Lower Body
- Chris Tanevinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Miles Woodlong-term-injured-reserve · Undisclosed
SEA
Actual (from shift data)L2
5:33
Injured / Scratched
- Jared McCanninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Jacob Melansoninjured-reserve · Chest
- Ryan Lindgreninjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Jake O'Brieninjured-reserve · Lower Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice