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HabsMetrics

Next game · Fri, Dec 18, 7:00 p.m. EST · KeyBank Center

MTL at BUF

MTL

MTL

Montréal Canadiens

@

BUF

BUF

Buffalo Sabres

Full game page →

Model outlook

Full prediction →

No projection for this game yet.

Poisson goals model; no candidate has beaten it in walk-forward tests. Picked the winner in 60% of 94 graded games.

How they compare

Side by side · Last 10

MTLBUF

Goals

3.80Goals for / GP3.30
2.60Goals against / GP3.10
+12Goal diff+2

Results and form

8-0-2Record5-2-3
90.0%Points %65.0%
80.0%Home pts %33.3%
100.0%Road pts %78.6%

Shots and possession

27.0Shots for / GP28.8
30.0Shots against / GP30.6
14.1%Shooting %11.5%
0.913Save %0.899
1.054PDO1.013
53.3%Corsi %49.0%
54.5%Fenwick %47.6%

Special teams and discipline

18.5%Power play %14.3%
73.5%Penalty kill %74.2%
11.3PIM / GP8.6

Puck battles

51.1%Faceoff %43.1%
18.6Hits / GP19.9
15.6Blocks / GP13.3
3.9Takeaways / GP5.0
16.3Giveaways / GP14.6
MTL last 5W0
W
W
L
W
W
BUF last 5W0
W
L
W
W
W

Head-to-Head — This Season

2MTL
0BUF
MTL: 8 GFBUF: 6 GF

Last met: Oct 17, 2026

Recent Meetings

Oct 17, 2026BUF @ MTL3 – 4MTL W
Oct 13, 2026BUF @ MTL3 – 4MTL W
May 18, 2026MTL @ BUF3 – 2MTL W
May 17, 2026BUF @ MTL8 – 3BUF W
May 14, 2026MTL @ BUF6 – 3MTL W

Injuries

League injury report →

Man-games lost

79

Injured now

6

Games played

17

  • Josh AndersonPersonal
    1 GMOut

    Anderson (personal) won't play against Toronto on Saturday, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports. · Nov 7

  • Ivan DemidovRight Ankle (Fracture)
    15 GMInjured Reserve

    Demidov (foot) skated Tuesday and could resume training with the team next week, Patrick Friolet of RDS reports. · Nov 4

  • Mike MathesonLower Body
    5 GMOut

    Matheson (lower body) is expected to miss two weeks, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports Saturday. · Oct 31

  • Sam MontembeaultLower Body
    13 GMInjured Reserve

    Montembeault (lower body) is considered day-to-day, according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports on Saturday. · Oct 31

  • Bryce PickfordUndisclosed
    17 GMInjured Reserve

    ir-nr · Sep 29

  • Lucas CondottaUndisclosed
    17 GMInjured Reserve

    ir-nr · Sep 29

Most games missed this season

  • Bryce Pickford17
  • Lucas Condotta17
  • Ivan Demidov15
  • Sam Montembeault13
  • Nick Suzukireturned6

GM = team games missed in the current stint. HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only, not gambling advice. Injury reports sourced from ESPN's public NHL injury feed.

Injuries

League injury report →

Man-games lost

65

Injured now

4

Games played

16

  • Konsta HeleniusUpper Body
    4 GMOut

    Helenius (upper body) is week-to-week, according to Matthew Fairburn of The Athletic on Monday. · Nov 2

  • Justin DanforthUpper Body
    6 GMInjured Reserve

    Danforth (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Thursday, per the NHL media site. · Oct 29

  • Alex LyonLeft Shoulder
    9 GMInjured Reserve

    Lyon (upper body) had a setback in his recovery and is without a timeline to return, the team announced Thursday. · Oct 15

  • Matt GrzelcykLower Body
    10 GMInjured Reserve

    Grzelcyk (lower body) suffered a "flare-up" and could be out for at least "a few days," head coach Lindy Ruff told Rachel Lenzi of The Buffalo News on Tuesday. · Oct 13

Most games missed this season

  • Jack Rathbonereturned15
  • Conor Timminsreturned14
  • Matt Grzelcyk10
  • Alex Lyon9
  • Justin Danforth6

GM = team games missed in the current stint. HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only, not gambling advice. Injury reports sourced from ESPN's public NHL injury feed.

Lineups

MTL

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
11:45
20Slafkovský
17:29
91Kapanen
15:56
13Caufield
16:21
L2
8:58
22Kreider
12:49
15Newhook
17:47
17Anderson
17:06
L3
6:56
85Texier
11:58
24Danault
19:21
76Bolduc
12:19
L4
5:38
63Xhekaj
6:19
71Evans
15:24
77Dach
13:11
D1
12:37
8Matheson
23:25
21Guhle
22:47
D2
13:28
48Hutson
22:04
53Dobson
19:35
D3
5:47
45Carrier
20:08
42Engstrom
10:23
32Fowler
59:38
Starter
75Dobes
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

  • Bryce Pickfordinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Lucas Condottainjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Nick Suzukiother · Upper Body
  • Sam Montembeaultinjured-reserve · Lower Body
  • Ivan Demidovinjured-reserve · Lower Body

BUF

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
12:34
91Doan
15:49
86Ostlund
18:55
22Quinn
19:28
L2
9:33
6Benson
17:52
72Thompson
17:10
94Helenius
11:44
L3
9:49
17Zucker
12:04
9Norris
16:02
71McLeod
13:19
L4
7:29
29Malenstyn
13:19
48Kozak
11:14
19Krebs
10:04
D1
18:46
26Dahlin
26:19
23Samuelsson
24:05
D2
16:40
25Power
24:49
8Zellweger
22:01
D3
6:52
73Metsa
10:37
46Crevier
9:11
1Luukkonen
0:00
Starter
92Ellis
59:58
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Not gambling advice.

Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres matchup preview: the HabsMetrics model’s win probability and projected score, a stat-by-stat team comparison, recent form and head-to-head history. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.