Senators vs Sabres Score & Box Score — Wed, Nov 4, 2026

FINALKeyBank Center · Nov 5

2@1

OTT rest: 2dBUF rest: 4d

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

Game analysis

Senators beat Sabres 2–1

M. Amadio scored the game-winner at 16:51 of the third.
The Senators trailed after two periods and rallied in the third.
S. Ersson stopped 24 of 25 shots (.960) for the win.
C. Ellis kept the Sabres in it with 28 saves (.933).
The Senators dominated the dot, winning 70% of faceoffs.
Model miss: the Senators won with only a 48% pre-game win probability.

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.

Three stars

1st star
S. Ersson
OTT · .960 SV%
2nd star
M. Amadio
OTT · 1G 0A
3rd star
C. Ellis
BUF · .933 SV%

Scoring summary

1st

No scoring

2nd

14:00BUFP. Krebs VideoAssists: T. Thompson, Z. Benson0–1

3rd

11:33OTTS. Pinto VideoAssists: P. Tomasino, T. Chabot1–1
16:51OTTM. Amadio VideoAssists: T. Stützle, F. Zetterlund2–1

Period by Period

Stats not yet available

Team Stats

OTTBUF

Team statistics comparison
Shots	--	--
Hits	23	24
Blocked	16	11
Power Play	0/2	0/2
Faceoff %	69.8	30.2
Corsi %	--	--
xG	3.06	2.13
Giveaways	20	12
Takeaways	2	5

Buffalo Sabres

Player statistics for Buffalo Sabres
Player	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	TOI
Peyton KrebsC	1	0	1	+1	1	13:32
Tage ThompsonC	0	1	1	+1	2	19:34
Zach BensonLW	0	1	1	+1	3	20:16
Josh NorrisC	0	0	0	0	1	10:40
Jason ZuckerLW	0	0	0	-1	1	13:16
Jack QuinnRW	0	0	0	-1	1	20:32
Beck MalenstynLW	0	0	0	0	0	11:26
Tyson KozakC	0	0	0	0	0	11:21
Ryan McLeodC	0	0	0	-1	0	13:16
Olen ZellwegerD	0	0	0	-1	1	23:48
Colten EllisG	--	--	41/43	--	.953	58:25
Ukko-Pekka LuukkonenG	--	--	28/30	--	.933	00:00

Ottawa Senators

Player statistics for Ottawa Senators
Player	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	TOI
Shane PintoC	1	0	1	+1	3	21:41
Tim StützleC	0	1	1	0	5	23:03
Fabian ZetterlundLW	0	1	1	0	2	16:19
Michael AmadioRW	1	0	1	0	2	15:55
Philip TomasinoRW	0	1	1	+1	4	14:44
Thomas ChabotD	0	1	1	+1	1	24:18
Drake BathersonRW	0	0	0	+1	2	20:13
Nick CousinsC	0	0	0	0	2	13:19
Dylan CozensC	0	0	0	0	0	16:11
Claude GirouxRW	0	0	0	0	3	16:17
Samuel ErssonG	--	--	32/33	--	.970	59:12
Jonas JohanssonG	--	--	23/24	--	.958	00:00

OTTaway

48%

BUFhome

52%

Win probability4-pt gap

Model pick

BUF · 52% to win

Key signals

Projected GoaltendingHome IceInjuriesMarket Consensus BlendTeam Offense (Goal Model)

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

OTT

3.1

–

BUF

3.2

Most likely final: BUF 3–2 OTT · Actual: 1–2

BUF win: 52%
OTT win: 48%
Goes to OT/SO: 23%

Likeliest scorelines

BUF 3 – 2 OTT8%
BUF 2 – 3 OTT8%
BUF 4 – 3 OTT7%
BUF 3 – 4 OTT7%
BUF 2 – 1 OTT5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 57%
7+ total goals: 46%
BUF by 2+: 26%
OTT by 2+: 23%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) -0.08 g/gm; Linus Ullmark (OTT) +0.10 g/gm.-0.18
Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to BUF.+0.17
InjuriesBUF without Konsta Helenius; OTT without Tyler Kleven, Warren Foegele, William Eklund.+0.11
Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.05
Team OffenseBUF scoring +2% vs league average, OTT +3% (time-weighted goal model).-0.03
Team DefenseBUF allowing +1% vs league average, OTT +1%.-0.00