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FINALHonda Center · Oct 30
BUF rest: 1dANA rest: 1d

Buffalo Sabres at Anaheim Ducks: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

Game analysis

Sabres beat Ducks 7–6

  • Z. Benson scored the game-winner at 6:37 of the third.
  • The Sabres came back from a 2-goal deficit.
  • C. Ellis stopped 29 of 35 shots (.829) for the win.
  • Power play: BUF 2/3, ANA 3/4.
  • T. Thompson recorded a hat trick and 2 assists.
  • HabsMetrics model had the Sabres as 53% favourites — it called this one.

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.

Three stars

  1. 1st star
    T. Thompson

    BUF · 3G 2A

  2. 2nd star
    C. Gauthier

    ANA · 2G 0A

  3. 3rd star
    P. Krebs

    BUF · 0G 3A

Scoring summary

Period by Period

Stats not yet available

Team Stats

BUFANA
Team statistics comparison
Shots----
Hits2727
Blocked99
Power Play2/33/4
Faceoff %40.359.7
Corsi %48.651.4
xG4.453.80
Giveaways1321
Takeaways35

Anaheim Ducks

Player statistics for Anaheim Ducks
PlayerGAP+/-SOGTOI
033-1422:09
20201022:18
022-1229:36
1120221:13
011+1211:06
0110013:38
101-1223:14
1010213:44
0110114:49
1010321:57
----35/42--.83353:34
----23/30--.76700:00

Buffalo Sabres

Player statistics for Buffalo Sabres
PlayerGAP+/-SOGTOI
325+3417:49
123+3319:30
033+3115:55
022+3426:00
011+1008:45
101-1418:28
1010112:14
101-1519:26
011-1018:14
011+1225:27
----40/46--.87059:56
----29/35--.82900:00
BUFaway
53%
at
ANAhome
47%
Win probability6-pt gap
Model pick
BUF · 53% to win

Key signals

Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceMarket Consensus BlendTeam Offense (Goal Model)Projected Goaltending

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

BUF
3.3
–
ANA
3.1

Most likely final: ANA 2–3 BUF · Actual: 6–7

ANA win
47%
BUF win
53%
Goes to OT/SO
23%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. ANA 2 – 3 BUF8%
  2. ANA 3 – 2 BUF7%
  3. ANA 3 – 4 BUF7%
  4. ANA 4 – 3 BUF7%
  5. ANA 1 – 2 BUF4%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
59%
7+ total goals
49%
ANA by 2+
23%
BUF by 2+
27%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team DefenseANA allowing +10% vs league average, BUF +0%.-0.27
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to ANA.+0.15
  • Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.13
  • Team OffenseANA scoring +0% vs league average, BUF -1% (time-weighted goal model).+0.04
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Lukas Dostal (ANA) -0.08 g/gm; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) -0.09 g/gm.+0.01
  • InjuriesANA without Ian Moore, Pavel Mintyukov, Ryan Poehling; BUF without Konsta Helenius, Jiri Kulich, Conor Timmins.+0.01

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

BUF

Actual (from shift data)
L1
12:06
19:30
17:49
15:55
L2
10:54
14:00
19:26
18:28
L3
8:00
11:04
13:51
13:45
L4
6:10
13:11
12:14
8:45
D1
14:17
26:00
25:27
D2
12:26
23:55
18:14
D3
7:37
12:39
10:35
59:56
Starter
Backup

Injured / Scratched

ANA

Actual (from shift data)
L1
5:37
10:48
23:14
21:13
L2
6:30
13:33
16:09
22:18
L3
5:56
13:00
22:09
13:38
L4
5:53
11:06
13:44
11:33
D1
9:55
29:36
14:45
D2
10:47
21:57
15:18
D3
8:32
14:49
14:24
53:34
Starter
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice