CARaway
61%at
NSHhome
39%Win probability22-pt gap
Model pick
CAR · 61% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesMarket Consensus Blend
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALBridgestone Arena · Nov 4
CAR rest: 2dNSH rest: 3d
Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Predators beat Hurricanes 4–1
- R. Josi scored the game-winner at 3:29 of the second.
- The Predators scored first and led the rest of the way.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- J. Saros stopped 29 of 30 shots (.967) for the win.
- The Predators won despite being outshot 30–20.
- Model miss: the Predators won with only a 39% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starJ. Saros
NSH · .967 SV%
- 2nd starR. Josi
NSH · 1G 1A
- 3rd starF. Forsberg
NSH · 0G 2A
Scoring summary
1st
- 12:32NSHN. PerbixVideoAssists: F. Forsberg0–1
2nd
- 3:29NSHR. JosiVideoAssists: F. Forsberg0–2
- 10:28CARJ. BlakeVideoAssists: S. Gostisbehere, L. Stankoven1–2
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
CARNSH
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 25 | 18 |
| Blocked | 18 | 20 |
| Power Play | 0/2 | 0/2 |
| Faceoff % | 49.1 | 50.9 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 3.71 | 3.58 |
| Giveaways | 12 | 16 |
| Takeaways | 2 | 3 |
Nashville Predators
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:47 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 14:20 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 24:30 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:55 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 20:44 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:46 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:49 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:32 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 12:38 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:23 | |
| -- | -- | 49/50 | -- | .980 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 29/30 | -- | .967 | 00:00 |
Carolina Hurricanes
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17:18 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19:29 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20:45 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 20:51 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 20:30 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18:57 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 08:06 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 14:58 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 09:05 | |
| -- | -- | 30/34 | -- | .882 | 57:12 | |
| -- | -- | 16/20 | -- | .800 | 00:00 |
Projected score
CAR
3.3
–
NSH
2.6
Most likely final: NSH 2–3 CAR · Actual: 4–1
- NSH win
- 39%
- CAR win
- 61%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- NSH 2 – 3 CAR9%
- NSH 3 – 2 CAR7%
- NSH 3 – 4 CAR7%
- NSH 1 – 2 CAR6%
- NSH 4 – 3 CAR6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 52%
- 7+ total goals
- 41%
- NSH by 2+
- 16%
- CAR by 2+
- 34%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseNSH allowing -1% vs league average, CAR -14%.-0.42
- Team OffenseNSH scoring -1% vs league average, CAR +14% (time-weighted goal model).-0.41
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to NSH.+0.14
- InjuriesCAR without Taylor Hall, Alexander Nikishin.+0.13
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.09
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Juuse Saros (NSH) +0.01 g/gm; Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR) +0.07 g/gm.-0.07
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
CAR
Actual (from shift data)L3
6:47
L4
7:12
D1
13:33
20:45
17:58
Injured / Scratched
- Taylor Hallother · Upper Body
- Alexander Nikishinother · Not Injury Related
- Jordan Staalinjured-reserve · Calf
NSH
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
None reported
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice