COLaway
59%at
NSHhome
41%Win probability18-pt gap
Model pick
COL · 59% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Rest / Back-to-BackHome IceInjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
← Back to Dashboard
FINALBridgestone Arena · Oct 26
COL rest: 1dNSH rest: 1d
Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Predators beat Avalanche 6–2
- R. O'Reilly scored the game-winner on the power play at 6:38 of the second.
- The Predators scored first and led the rest of the way.
- J. Annunen stopped 19 of 21 shots (.905) for the win.
- The Predators controlled play, outshooting the Avalanche 35–21.
- Power play: NSH 4/7, COL 0/4.
- Model miss: the Predators won with only a 41% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starR. O'Reilly
NSH · 2G 2A
- 2nd starS. Stamkos
NSH · 2G 1A
- 3rd starF. Forsberg
NSH · 1G 2A
Scoring summary
1st
- 4:01NSHF. ForsbergPPVideoAssists: R. Josi, S. Stamkos0–1
- 10:48NSHS. StamkosVideoAssists: R. O'Reilly, M. Bourque0–2
2nd
- 6:38NSHR. O'ReillyPPVideoAssists: R. Josi, F. Forsberg0–3
- 16:36NSHJ. DruryVideoAssists: R. Colton, B. Skjei0–4
- 17:29NSHR. O'ReillyPPVideoAssists: J. Marchessault, F. Forsberg0–5
- 17:55COLA. LehkonenVideoAssists: M. Necas, N. MacKinnon1–5
3rd
- 2:43COLD. ToewsVideoAssists: S. Malinski, M. Necas2–5
- 10:24NSHS. StamkosPPVideoAssists: R. O'Reilly, R. Josi2–6
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
COLNSH
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 15 | 18 |
| Blocked | 11 | 10 |
| Power Play | 0/4 | 4/7 |
| Faceoff % | 36.7 | 63.3 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 2.22 | 3.30 |
| Giveaways | 7 | 13 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 4 |
Nashville Predators
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 5 | 20:48 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18:50 | |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 17:46 | |
| 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 21:10 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:39 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14:59 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:27 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:19 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:21 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | |
| -- | -- | 33/35 | -- | .943 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 19/21 | -- | .905 | 00:00 |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:07 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:49 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18:32 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 20:06 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:53 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:31 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 17:18 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 05:02 | |
| -- | -- | 42/48 | -- | .875 | 59:54 | |
| -- | -- | 29/35 | -- | .829 | 00:00 |
Projected score
COL
3.5
–
NSH
2.9
Most likely final: NSH 2–3 COL · Actual: 6–2
- NSH win
- 41%
- COL win
- 59%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- NSH 2 – 3 COL8%
- NSH 3 – 4 COL7%
- NSH 3 – 2 COL7%
- NSH 4 – 3 COL6%
- NSH 1 – 2 COL5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 58%
- 7+ total goals
- 47%
- NSH by 2+
- 18%
- COL by 2+
- 33%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseNSH scoring -5% vs league average, COL +18% (time-weighted goal model).-0.65
- RestNSH on the second night of a back-to-back.-0.18
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to NSH.+0.14
- InjuriesCOL without Nicolas Roy.+0.09
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Juuse Saros (NSH) +0.02 g/gm; Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) -0.02 g/gm.+0.04
- Team DefenseNSH allowing -2% vs league average, COL -2%.-0.02
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
COL
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Nicolas Royother · Lower Body
- Zachary L'Heureuxlong-term-injured-reserve · Upper Body
NSH
Actual (from shift data)L1
2:40
Injured / Scratched
None reported
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice