Senators vs Penguins Score & Box Score — Sat, Nov 14, 2026

SCHEDULEDPPG Paints Arena · Nov 15

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OTT rest: 1dPIT rest: 2d

Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

OTTaway

50%

PIThome

50%

Win probabilityToss-up

Model pick

Toss-up · No clear favourite · OTT 50% · PIT 50%

Key signals

Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceRecent Form & Shot MetricsProjected GoaltendingInjuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

OTT

3.1

–

PIT

3.1

Most likely final: PIT 3–2 OTT

PIT win: 50%
OTT win: 50%
Goes to OT/SO: 24%

Likeliest scorelines

PIT 3 – 2 OTT8%
PIT 2 – 3 OTT8%
PIT 4 – 3 OTT7%
PIT 3 – 4 OTT7%
PIT 2 – 1 OTT5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 55%
7+ total goals: 45%
PIT by 2+: 25%
OTT by 2+: 24%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Team DefensePIT allowing +6% vs league average, OTT -3%.-0.26
Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to PIT.+0.20
Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: PIT 3.09 vs OTT 3.06 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.+0.06
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Arturs Silovs (PIT) -0.08 g/gm; Samuel Ersson (OTT) -0.03 g/gm.-0.05
InjuriesPIT without Elmer Soderblom, Bryan Rust, Ryan Graves; OTT without Ridly Greig, Warren Foegele, William Eklund.+0.04
Team OffensePIT scoring +3% vs league average, OTT +2% (time-weighted goal model).+0.04