OTTaway
54%at
ANAhome
46%Win probability8-pt gap
Model pick
OTT · 54% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Rest / Back-to-BackProjected GoaltendingHome IceMarket Consensus Blend
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
← Back to Dashboard
FINALHonda Center · Nov 2
OTT rest: 1dANA rest: 2d
Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Ducks beat Senators 6–3
- C. Gauthier scored the game-winner on the power play at 1:50 of the third.
- The Ducks came back from a 3-goal deficit.
- L. Brossoit stopped 20 of 23 shots (.870) for the win.
- The Ducks controlled play, outshooting the Senators 33–23.
- Power play: ANA 4/5, OTT 0/3.
- Model miss: the Ducks won with only a 46% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starC. Gauthier
ANA · 3G 0A
- 2nd starJ. Caulfield
ANA · 2G 1A
- 3rd starL. Carlsson
ANA · 0G 3A
Scoring summary
1st
- 6:00OTTP. TomasinoVideoAssists: T. Chabot, D. Batherson1–0
- 7:02OTTC. GirouxVideoAssists: J. Sanderson, A. Zub2–0
- 17:37OTTM. AmadioVideoAssists: C. Giroux, J. Sanderson3–0
2nd
- 1:35ANAC. GauthierVideo3–1
- 3:33ANAJ. CaulfieldVideoAssists: N. Warren, L. Carlsson3–2
- 19:18ANAJ. CaulfieldPPVideoAssists: T. Luneau, N. Nesterenko3–3
3rd
- 1:50ANAC. GauthierPPVideoAssists: J. LaCombe, L. Carlsson3–4
- 2:26ANAC. GauthierPPVideoAssists: L. Carlsson, M. Granlund3–5
- 15:19ANAR. McQueenPPVideoAssists: J. Caulfield, T. Luneau3–6
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
OTTANA
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 17 | 24 |
| Blocked | 12 | 15 |
| Power Play | 0/3 | 4/5 |
| Faceoff % | 58.6 | 41.4 |
| Corsi % | 46.1 | 53.9 |
| xG | 2.55 | 2.77 |
| Giveaways | 20 | 18 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 5 |
Anaheim Ducks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 19:02 | |
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20:40 | |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13:21 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 20:12 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 09:35 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:04 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11:46 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 28:04 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11:16 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 10:27 | |
| -- | -- | 29/32 | -- | .906 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 19/22 | -- | .864 | 00:00 |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 23:59 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 14:02 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 16:19 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 11:18 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 18:53 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:18 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 18:58 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22:54 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15:09 | |
| -- | -- | 36/42 | -- | .857 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 27/33 | -- | .818 | 00:00 |
Projected score
OTT
3.3
–
ANA
3.1
Most likely final: ANA 2–3 OTT · Actual: 6–3
- ANA win
- 46%
- OTT win
- 54%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- ANA 2 – 3 OTT8%
- ANA 3 – 2 OTT7%
- ANA 3 – 4 OTT7%
- ANA 4 – 3 OTT7%
- ANA 1 – 2 OTT4%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 59%
- 7+ total goals
- 49%
- ANA by 2+
- 21%
- OTT by 2+
- 29%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseANA allowing +13% vs league average, OTT -2%.-0.43
- RestOTT on the second night of a back-to-back.+0.19
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Lukas Dostal (ANA) -0.08 g/gm; Linus Ullmark (OTT) +0.10 g/gm.-0.18
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to ANA.+0.16
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.06
- InjuriesANA without Troy Terry, Ian Moore, Ryan Poehling; OTT without Warren Foegele, William Eklund.-0.04
- Team OffenseANA scoring +3% vs league average, OTT +3% (time-weighted goal model).-0.02
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
OTT
Actual (from shift data)L1
9:13
Injured / Scratched
- Hayden Hodgsonsuspension · Suspension
- Warren Foegeleinjured-reserve · Right Knee
- Andre Burakovskyinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Linus Ullmarkinjured-reserve · Lower Body (Strain)
- William Eklundinjured-reserve · Ankle
ANA
Actual (from shift data)L4
5:35
Injured / Scratched
- Troy Terrylong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- Ian Mooreinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Ryan Poehlinginjured-reserve · Lower Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice