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SCHEDULEDNationwide Arena · Nov 15
PHIPHI
—@—
CBJCBJ
PHI rest: 2dCBJ rest: 1d

Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

PHIaway
47%
at
CBJhome
53%
Win probability6-pt gap
Model pick
CBJ · 53% to win

Key signals

Home IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Projected GoaltendingInjuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

PHI
2.9
–
CBJ
3.1

Most likely final: CBJ 3–2 PHI

CBJ win
53%
PHI win
47%
Goes to OT/SO
24%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. CBJ 3 – 2 PHI9%
  2. CBJ 2 – 3 PHI8%
  3. CBJ 4 – 3 PHI7%
  4. CBJ 3 – 4 PHI6%
  5. CBJ 2 – 1 PHI6%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
52%
7+ total goals
42%
CBJ by 2+
26%
PHI by 2+
22%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to CBJ.+0.20
  • Team OffenseCBJ scoring -10% vs league average, PHI -13% (time-weighted goal model).+0.12
  • Team DefenseCBJ allowing -1% vs league average, PHI -3%.-0.06
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jet Greaves (CBJ) -0.05 g/gm; Joseph Woll (PHI) -0.00 g/gm.-0.05
  • InjuriesCBJ without Sean Monahan, Dmitri Voronkov; PHI without Nikita Grebenkin, Rasmus Ristolainen.+0.03
  • Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: CBJ 3.02 vs PHI 2.82 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.02

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

PHI

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
9:43
22Dvorak
17:03
46Zegras
17:08
11Konecny
13:58
L2
9:43
27Cates
13:02
39Michkov
15:31
94Martone
14:32
L3
8:46
71Foerster
13:21
86Barkey
15:49
74Tippett
13:31
L4
8:57
14Couturier
15:14
52Acciari
16:04
54Knuble
10:44
D1
14:32
6Sanheim
23:28
9Drysdale
21:26
D2
14:11
8York
20:57
59Bonk
17:47
D3
12:08
24Seeler
17:27
44Benoit
15:16
80Vladar
60:00
Starter
53Woll
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

CBJ

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
7:41
91Johnson
19:18
19Fantilli
24:54
43Nichushkin
17:26
L2
3:39
89Knies
17:29
3Coyle
23:57
24Olivier
12:04
L3
4:03
58Heinen
11:38
23Monahan
15:20
83Garland
14:14
L4
0:21
94Lomberg
8:40
4Sillinger
15:44
44Gudbranson
4:34
D1
10:58
8Werenski
28:01
78Severson
20:50
D2
7:00
5Mateychuk
21:21
9Provorov
19:31
D3
4:46
15Fabbro
12:57
2Christiansen
11:03
73Greaves
58:26
Starter
33Talbot
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

None reported

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice