UTAaway
53%at
PHIhome
47%Win probability6-pt gap
Model pick
UTA · 53% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALXfinity Mobile Arena · Nov 1
UTA rest: 2dPHI rest: 3d
Utah Mammoth at Philadelphia Flyers: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Flyers beat Mammoth 6–3
- C. Dvorak scored the game-winner at 1:02 of the third.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- D. Vladar stopped 19 of 22 shots (.864) for the win.
- Power play: PHI 0/2, UTA 2/5.
- J. Drysdale led all scorers with 0 goals and 3 assists.
- Model miss: the Flyers won with only a 47% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starT. Konecny
PHI · 1G 1A
- 2nd starJ. Drysdale
PHI · 0G 3A
- 3rd starN. Cates
PHI · 1G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
- 12:49PHIM. MichkovVideoAssists: N. Cates, P. Martone0–1
- 14:24UTAD. SimashevVideoAssists: V. Trocheck, L. Cooley1–1
2nd
- 1:06PHIT. KonecnyVideoAssists: J. Drysdale, C. Dvorak1–2
- 5:50PHIN. CatesVideoAssists: T. Sanheim, J. Drysdale1–3
3rd
- 1:02PHIC. DvorakVideoAssists: T. Konecny, T. Sanheim1–4
- 5:35PHIO. BonkVideoAssists: C. York, S. Couturier1–5
- 16:00UTAM. SergachevPPVideoAssists: N. Schmaltz, C. Keller2–5
- 17:07UTAL. CooleyPPVideoAssists: N. Schmaltz, C. Keller3–5
- 18:26PHIC. KnubleENVideoAssists: N. Acciari, J. Drysdale3–6
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
UTAPHI
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 26 | 30 |
| Blocked | 12 | 16 |
| Power Play | 2/5 | 0/2 |
| Faceoff % | 48.1 | 51.9 |
| Corsi % | 53.9 | 46.1 |
| xG | 2.58 | 2.64 |
| Giveaways | 18 | 21 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 2 |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 0 | 21:26 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 1 | 13:58 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 17:03 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 13:02 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 2 | 23:28 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:14 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:44 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:32 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:04 | |
| -- | -- | 35/38 | -- | .921 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 19/22 | -- | .864 | 00:00 |
Utah Mammoth
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 3 | 18:26 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 18:10 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 4 | 19:16 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:08 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 13:42 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 24:32 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 4 | 19:18 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 12:22 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:41 | |
| -- | -- | 25/31 | -- | .806 | 58:25 | |
| -- | -- | 15/21 | -- | .714 | 00:00 |
Projected score
UTA
3.0
–
PHI
2.8
Most likely final: PHI 2–3 UTA · Actual: 6–3
- PHI win
- 47%
- UTA win
- 53%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 25%
Likeliest scorelines
- PHI 2 – 3 UTA9%
- PHI 3 – 2 UTA8%
- PHI 3 – 4 UTA7%
- PHI 4 – 3 UTA6%
- PHI 1 – 2 UTA6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 49%
- 7+ total goals
- 39%
- PHI by 2+
- 21%
- UTA by 2+
- 27%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffensePHI scoring -15% vs league average, UTA +7% (time-weighted goal model).-0.68
- Team DefensePHI allowing -3% vs league average, UTA +2%.+0.16
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to PHI.+0.14
- InjuriesPHI without Nikita Grebenkin, Rasmus Ristolainen; UTA without John Marino, Michael Carcone, Maveric Lamoureux.+0.08
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Joseph Woll (PHI) -0.00 g/gm; Karel Vejmelka (UTA) -0.07 g/gm.+0.06
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
UTA
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Kailer Yamamotoother · Upper Body
- Maveric Lamoureuxinjured-reserve · Shoulder
- John Marinoinjured-reserve · Upper Body
PHI
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Nikita Grebenkininjured-reserve · Back
- Rasmus Ristolaineninjured-reserve · Hand
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice