Avalanche vs Senators Score & Box Score — Thu, Nov 12, 2026

SCHEDULEDCanadian Tire Centre · Nov 13

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COL rest: 1dOTT rest: 1d

Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

COLaway

55%

OTThome

45%

Win probability10-pt gap

Model pick

COL · 55% to win

Key signals

Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesProjected GoaltendingTeam Defense (Goal Model)

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

COL

3.2

–

OTT

3.0

Most likely final: OTT 2–3 COL

OTT win: 47%
COL win: 53%
Goes to OT/SO: 24%

Likeliest scorelines

OTT 2 – 3 COL8%
OTT 3 – 2 COL8%
OTT 3 – 4 COL7%
OTT 4 – 3 COL7%
OTT 1 – 2 COL5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 56%
7+ total goals: 45%
OTT by 2+: 22%
COL by 2+: 27%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Team OffenseOTT scoring +2% vs league average, COL +15% (time-weighted goal model).-0.36
Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to OTT.+0.20
InjuriesOTT without Ridly Greig, Warren Foegele, William Eklund; COL without Josh Manson.-0.11
Team DefenseOTT allowing -3% vs league average, COL +1%.+0.10
Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: OTT 3.05 vs COL 3.12 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.00
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Samuel Ersson (OTT) -0.03 g/gm; Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) -0.03 g/gm.+0.00