Lightning vs Sabres Score & Box Score — Wed, Nov 11, 2026

SCHEDULEDKeyBank Center · Nov 12

—@—

TBL rest: 2dBUF rest: 3d

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

TBLaway

56%

BUFhome

44%

Win probability12-pt gap

Model pick

TBL · 56% to win

Key signals

Recent Form & Shot MetricsTeam Offense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Defense (Goal Model)Projected Goaltending

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

TBL

3.3

–

BUF

2.9

Most likely final: BUF 2–3 TBL

BUF win: 44%
TBL win: 56%
Goes to OT/SO: 23%

Likeliest scorelines

BUF 2 – 3 TBL8%
BUF 3 – 2 TBL8%
BUF 3 – 4 TBL7%
BUF 4 – 3 TBL6%
BUF 1 – 2 TBL5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 55%
7+ total goals: 44%
BUF by 2+: 20%
TBL by 2+: 30%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: BUF 2.77 vs TBL 3.17 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.29
Team OffenseBUF scoring +1% vs league average, TBL +9% (time-weighted goal model).-0.23
Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to BUF.+0.20
Team DefenseBUF allowing -1% vs league average, TBL -3%.-0.06
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) -0.07 g/gm; Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) -0.04 g/gm.-0.03
InjuriesBUF without Konsta Helenius; TBL without Yanni Gourde.+0.01