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SCHEDULEDCanadian Tire Centre · Nov 11
WSHWSH
—@—
OTTOTT
WSH rest: 3dOTT rest: 2d
WSHaway
50%
at
OTThome
50%
Win probabilityToss-up
Model pick
Toss-up · No clear favourite · WSH 50% · OTT 50%

Key signals

Home IceTeam Defense (Goal Model)score_goals_modelTeam Offense (Goal Model)Injuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

WSH
3.1
–
OTT
3.0

Most likely final: OTT 3–2 WSH

OTT win
50%
WSH win
50%
Goes to OT/SO
24%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. OTT 3 – 2 WSH8%
  2. OTT 2 – 3 WSH8%
  3. OTT 4 – 3 WSH7%
  4. OTT 3 – 4 WSH7%
  5. OTT 2 – 1 WSH5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
54%
7+ total goals
44%
OTT by 2+
24%
WSH by 2+
25%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to OTT.+0.19
  • Team DefenseOTT allowing -2% vs league average, WSH +5%.+0.19
  • Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: OTT 3.08 vs WSH 3.04 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.17
  • Team OffenseOTT scoring +2% vs league average, WSH +8% (time-weighted goal model).-0.17
  • InjuriesOTT without Ridly Greig, Warren Foegele, William Eklund; WSH without Vincent Desharnais, Rasmus Sandin.-0.07
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Samuel Ersson (OTT) -0.04 g/gm; Logan Thompson (WSH) -0.04 g/gm.-0.00

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

WSH

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
7:50
21Protas
19:33
80Dubois
17:07
43Wilson
19:43
L2
6:34
89Tuch
17:18
17Strome
15:54
25Kyrou
14:31
L3
4:44
34Sourdif
12:50
22Jenner
16:09
9Leonard
13:53
L4
5:47
8Ovechkin
10:56
62Protas
11:37
72Beauvillier
9:40
D1
11:19
3Roy
23:07
6Chychrun
22:30
D2
8:45
42Fehervary
19:49
27Liljegren
15:54
D3
9:25
44Hutson
18:26
29St. Ivany
15:12
48Thompson
0:00
Starter
79Lindgren
60:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

  • Patrick Thomasinjured-reserve · Upper Body
  • Vincent Desharnaisinjured-reserve · Abdomen (Surgery)
  • Rasmus Sandinlong-term-injured-reserve · Right Knee (Surgery)

OTT

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
6:00
71Greig
19:22
12Pinto
21:59
22Amadio
18:19
L2
6:41
20Zetterlund
13:25
18Stützle
22:21
28Giroux
15:22
L3
2:53
34Halliday
11:17
24Cozens
17:30
19Batherson
18:57
L4
LW
21Cousins
8:30
RW
D1
14:02
85Sanderson
29:17
2Zub
21:00
D2
15:02
72Chabot
22:37
10Spence
19:55
D3
7:23
43Kleven
14:42
33Matinpalo
12:37
30Ersson
32:31
Starter
31Johansson
30:54
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice