MINaway
62%at
TORhome
38%Win probability24-pt gap
Model pick
MIN · 62% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceProjected GoaltendingRecent Form & Shot MetricsInjuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
← Back to Dashboard
SCHEDULEDScotiabank Arena · Nov 13
MIN rest: 1dTOR rest: 1d
Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Projected score
MIN
3.3
–
TOR
2.6
Most likely final: TOR 2–3 MIN
- TOR win
- 38%
- MIN win
- 62%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- TOR 2 – 3 MIN9%
- TOR 3 – 2 MIN8%
- TOR 3 – 4 MIN7%
- TOR 1 – 2 MIN6%
- TOR 4 – 3 MIN6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 50%
- 7+ total goals
- 39%
- TOR by 2+
- 15%
- MIN by 2+
- 34%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseTOR allowing +5% vs league average, MIN -16%.-0.66
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to TOR.+0.20
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) -0.05 g/gm; Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) +0.09 g/gm.-0.14
- Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: TOR 2.77 vs MIN 3.38 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.13
- InjuriesTOR without Morgan Rielly, Kirill Marchenko, Nick Blankenburg; MIN without Michael McCarron, Jared Spurgeon, Brock Faber.-0.02
- Team OffenseTOR scoring +6% vs league average, MIN +6% (time-weighted goal model).-0.00
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
MIN
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L1
18:16
Injured / Scratched
- Jared Spurgeoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Marcus Folignoinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Filip Gustavssonlong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- Nick Folignoinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Brock Faberinjured-reserve · Skull (Surgery)
TOR
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
D3
12:15
18:22
28Stecher
16:48
Injured / Scratched
- Kirill Marchenkoinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Elvis Merzlikinslong-term-injured-reserve · Shoulder (Surgery)
- Nick Blankenburginjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Marshall Rifaiinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- John Tavaresinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Max Domilong-term-injured-reserve · Back (Surgery)
- Cade Webberinjured-reserve · Elbow
- William Villeneuveinjured-reserve · Knee (Surgery)
- Miles Woodlong-term-injured-reserve · Undisclosed
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice