MINaway
51%at
WSHhome
49%Win probability2-pt gap
Model pick
MIN · 51% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)InjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALCapital One Arena · Nov 1
MIN rest: 1dWSH rest: 1d
Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Wild beat Capitals 5–1
- M. McCarron scored the game-winner at 5:27 of the first.
- The Wild scored first and led the rest of the way.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- J. Wallstedt stopped 26 of 27 shots (.963) for the win.
- Power play: MIN 2/5, WSH 0/1.
- HabsMetrics model had the Wild as 51% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starJ. Wallstedt
MIN · .963 SV%
- 2nd starQ. Hughes
MIN · 1G 0A
- 3rd starJ. Sourdif
WSH · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
- 3:42MINQ. HughesVideoAssists: J. Brodin, N. Sturm1–0
- 5:27MINM. McCarronVideoAssists: B. Coleman, B. Brink2–0
2nd
- 19:54WSHJ. SourdifVideoAssists: C. Hutson, A. Beauvillier2–1
3rd
- 17:37MINM. ShabanovPPVideoAssists: J. Eriksson Ek3–1
- 19:02MINK. KaprizovENVideoAssists: M. Boldy, J. Eriksson Ek4–1
- 19:35MIND. YurovPPVideoAssists: D. Spacek, B. Brink5–1
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
MINWSH
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 22 | 24 |
| Blocked | 20 | 18 |
| Power Play | 2/5 | 0/1 |
| Faceoff % | 43.1 | 56.9 |
| Corsi % | 48.4 | 51.6 |
| xG | 4.97 | 3.50 |
| Giveaways | 13 | 14 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 3 |
Washington Capitals
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:04 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 10:22 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19:58 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12:18 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:01 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 08:44 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:47 | |
| -- | -- | 36/41 | -- | .878 | 58:52 | |
| -- | -- | 24/29 | -- | .828 | 00:00 |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 19:33 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 16:11 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:51 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 13:38 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:11 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 09:22 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:43 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:55 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 29:41 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:27 | |
| -- | -- | 45/46 | -- | .978 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 26/27 | -- | .963 | 00:00 |
Projected score
MIN
2.9
–
WSH
2.8
Most likely final: WSH 2–3 MIN · Actual: 1–5
- WSH win
- 49%
- MIN win
- 51%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 25%
Likeliest scorelines
- WSH 2 – 3 MIN9%
- WSH 3 – 2 MIN9%
- WSH 3 – 4 MIN7%
- WSH 4 – 3 MIN7%
- WSH 1 – 2 MIN6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 48%
- 7+ total goals
- 38%
- WSH by 2+
- 22%
- MIN by 2+
- 25%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseWSH allowing -0% vs league average, MIN -13%.-0.39
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to WSH.+0.14
- Team OffenseWSH scoring +7% vs league average, MIN +3% (time-weighted goal model).+0.12
- InjuriesWSH without Vincent Desharnais, Rasmus Sandin; MIN without Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Brock Faber.+0.11
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Logan Thompson (WSH) +0.01 g/gm; Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) +0.06 g/gm.-0.05
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.03
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
MIN
Actual (from shift data)L1
18:16
Injured / Scratched
- Jared Spurgeoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Marcus Folignoinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Filip Gustavssonlong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- Nick Folignoinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Brock Faberinjured-reserve · Skull (Surgery)
WSH
Actual (from shift data)L4
4:45
Injured / Scratched
- Patrick Thomasinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Vincent Desharnaisinjured-reserve · Abdomen (Surgery)
- Rasmus Sandinlong-term-injured-reserve · Right Knee (Surgery)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice