Flyers Edge Flames in a Coin-Flip Matchup at the Saddledome

SCHEDULEDScotiabank Saddledome · Nov 9

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PHI rest: 2dCGY rest: 1d

Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

PHIaway

51%

CGYhome

49%

Win probability2-pt gap

Model pick

PHI · 51% to win

Key signals

Home IceTeam Defense (Goal Model)Projected GoaltendingInjuriesTeam Offense (Goal Model)

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

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Flyers Edge Flames in a Coin-Flip Matchup at the Saddledome

The PuckMetrics model has the Philadelphia Flyers as narrow favourites at 51% to win, against 49% for the Calgary Flames. That is a true toss-up, and the confidence level is low. Neither side has a clear edge, so treat this as a game that could go either way.

The most likely final score is Philadelphia 3, Calgary 2. The model also gives overtime a 26% chance, so a tight finish that goes beyond regulation is a real possibility. Expect a close game decided by a goal or two.

Calgary gets the advantage of home ice at the Scotiabank Saddledome, but the model's numbers do not show that edge translating into a clear lead. Philadelphia's slight advantage is the reason for the lean, not a decisive gap. Watch for late-game execution, since small margins will likely decide this one.

Flyers 51%, Flames 49%. PuckMetrics' model sees a true toss-up in Calgary. Most likely score: PHI 3, CGY 2, with a 26% chance of overtime. Analytics only, not betting advice. #Flyers #Flames #NHL

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For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Projected score

PHI

3.0

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CGY

2.9

Most likely final: CGY 2–3 PHI

CGY win: 49%
PHI win: 51%
Goes to OT/SO: 25%

Likeliest scorelines

CGY 2 – 3 PHI9%
CGY 3 – 2 PHI9%
CGY 3 – 4 PHI7%
CGY 4 – 3 PHI7%
CGY 1 – 2 PHI6%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 50%
7+ total goals: 40%
CGY by 2+: 23%
PHI by 2+: 25%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to CGY.+0.20
Team DefenseCGY allowing +3% vs league average, PHI -3%.-0.17
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Dustin Wolf (CGY) -0.10 g/gm; Joseph Woll (PHI) -0.00 g/gm.-0.09
InjuriesCGY without Kevin Bahl, Connor Zary, Samuel Honzek; PHI without Nikita Grebenkin, Rasmus Ristolainen.-0.06
Team OffenseCGY scoring -12% vs league average, PHI -13% (time-weighted goal model).+0.03
Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: CGY 2.92 vs PHI 2.85 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.+0.02
Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.00