PHIaway
42%at
NYRhome
58%Win probability16-pt gap
Model pick
NYR · 58% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceProjected GoaltendingInjuriesMarket Consensus Blend
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALMadison Square Garden · Nov 6
PHI rest: 1dNYR rest: 1d
Game analysis
Rangers beat Flyers 3–2
- T. Kartye scored the game-winner at 15:21 of the third.
- The Rangers trailed after two periods and rallied in the third.
- D. Garand stopped 23 of 25 shots (.920) for the win.
- Power play: NYR 1/2, PHI 0/1.
- A. Fox led all scorers with 0 goals and 2 assists.
- HabsMetrics model had the Rangers as 58% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starT. Kartye
NYR · 1G 0A
- 2nd starP. Dorofeyev
NYR · 1G 0A
- 3rd starA. Fox
NYR · 0G 2A
Scoring summary
1st
- 4:39NYRG. PerreaultVideoAssists: J. Miller, M. Pettersson0–1
2nd
- 10:10PHIS. BenoitVideoAssists: T. Foerster1–1
- 12:09PHIN. AcciariVideoAssists: D. Barkey, J. Drysdale2–1
3rd
- 13:52NYRP. DorofeyevPPVideoAssists: M. Zibanejad, A. Fox2–2
- 15:21NYRT. KartyeVideoAssists: A. Fox, O. Bjorkstrand2–3
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
PHINYR
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 17 | 20 |
| Blocked | 11 | 11 |
| Power Play | 0/1 | 1/2 |
| Faceoff % | 55.6 | 44.4 |
| Corsi % | 49.5 | 50.5 |
| xG | 2.67 | 3.16 |
| Giveaways | 14 | 13 |
| Takeaways | 5 | 5 |
New York Rangers
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25:28 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 15:02 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 20:06 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15:56 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 21:58 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 21:23 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:21 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 18:16 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 07:02 | |
| -- | -- | 40/42 | -- | .952 | 59:45 | |
| -- | -- | 23/25 | -- | .920 | 00:00 |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:58 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 17:13 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 15:50 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26:23 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:22 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 19:43 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:45 | |
| -- | -- | 39/42 | -- | .929 | 58:43 | |
| -- | -- | 25/28 | -- | .893 | 00:00 |
Projected score
PHI
2.6
–
NYR
3.0
Most likely final: NYR 3–2 PHI · Actual: 3–2
- NYR win
- 58%
- PHI win
- 42%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 25%
Likeliest scorelines
- NYR 3 – 2 PHI10%
- NYR 2 – 3 PHI8%
- NYR 2 – 1 PHI7%
- NYR 4 – 3 PHI7%
- NYR 1 – 2 PHI6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 45%
- 7+ total goals
- 35%
- NYR by 2+
- 30%
- PHI by 2+
- 18%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseNYR scoring -2% vs league average, PHI -13% (time-weighted goal model).+0.34
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to NYR.+0.18
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Dylan Garand (NYR) +0.02 g/gm; Dan Vladar (PHI) -0.05 g/gm.+0.06
- InjuriesNYR without Joe Veleno, Sean Durzi, Adam Sykora; PHI without Nikita Grebenkin, Rasmus Ristolainen.-0.04
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.03
- Team DefenseNYR allowing -3% vs league average, PHI -2%.+0.01
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
PHI
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Nikita Grebenkininjured-reserve · Back
- Rasmus Ristolaineninjured-reserve · Hand
NYR
Actual (from shift data)L2
10:19
L3
6:59
D2
17:34
21:23
19:17
Injured / Scratched
- Joe Velenolong-term-injured-reserve · Right Lower Body
- Aidan Thompsoninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Igor Shesterkinlong-term-injured-reserve · Right Knee (Surgery)
- Adam Sykorainjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Sean Durziinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Joonas Korpisaloinjured-reserve · Foot (Infection)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice