LAKaway
38%at
NYRhome
62%Win probability24-pt gap
Model pick
NYR · 62% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Defense (Goal Model)InjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALMadison Square Garden · Oct 26
LAK rest: 1dNYR rest: 1d
Game analysis
Kings beat Rangers 6–3
- A. Panarin scored the game-winner on the power play at 1:30 of the second.
- The Kings scored first and led the rest of the way.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- D. Kuemper stopped 23 of 26 shots (.885) for the win.
- Power play: LAK 1/3, NYR 1/1.
- Model miss: the Kings won with only a 38% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starD. Doughty
LAK · 1G 2A
- 2nd starA. Panarin
LAK · 1G 1A
- 3rd starT. Ward
LAK · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
- 1:15LAKT. WardVideoAssists: D. Doughty, T. Moore1–0
- 4:52LAKB. ClarkeVideoAssists: S. Laughton, J. Armia2–0
- 13:01NYRJ. MillerVideoAssists: T. Kartye2–1
- 17:32LAKD. DoughtyVideoAssists: J. Edmundson, A. Panarin3–1
2nd
- 1:30LAKA. PanarinPPVideoAssists: E. Gustafsson, A. Laferriere4–1
- 6:54LAKM. AndersonVideoAssists: C. Perry5–1
- 13:05NYRA. FoxPPVideoAssists: P. Dorofeyev, A. Lafrenière5–2
3rd
- 16:08NYRT. KartyeVideoAssists: S. Durzi5–3
- 16:37LAKJ. EdmundsonENVideoAssists: D. Doughty, A. Laferriere6–3
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
LAKNYR
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 19 | 24 |
| Blocked | 13 | 14 |
| Power Play | 1/3 | 1/1 |
| Faceoff % | 41.0 | 59.0 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 2.86 | 2.85 |
| Giveaways | 15 | 18 |
| Takeaways | 6 | 4 |
New York Rangers
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:57 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 20:32 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 18:27 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 24:25 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 16:14 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 15:10 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:30 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 05:58 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 16:12 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 07:31 | |
| -- | -- | 18/24 | -- | .750 | 38:05 | |
| -- | -- | 11/17 | -- | .647 | 20:00 |
Los Angeles Kings
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 1 | 21:37 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 19:52 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 20:00 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:17 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:01 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:23 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 20:23 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 20:10 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12:33 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:50 | |
| -- | -- | 39/42 | -- | .929 | 59:19 | |
| -- | -- | 23/26 | -- | .885 | 00:00 |
Projected score
LAK
2.5
–
NYR
3.2
Most likely final: NYR 3–2 LAK · Actual: 3–6
- NYR win
- 62%
- LAK win
- 38%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- NYR 3 – 2 LAK10%
- NYR 2 – 3 LAK8%
- NYR 2 – 1 LAK7%
- NYR 4 – 3 LAK7%
- NYR 1 – 2 LAK6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 46%
- 7+ total goals
- 36%
- NYR by 2+
- 33%
- LAK by 2+
- 15%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseNYR scoring +2% vs league average, LAK -11% (time-weighted goal model).+0.38
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to NYR.+0.16
- Team DefenseNYR allowing -4% vs league average, LAK -0%.+0.11
- InjuriesNYR without Joe Veleno, Adam Sykora; LAK without Mats Zuccarello, Alex Turcotte, Kevin Fiala.+0.05
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Dylan Garand (NYR) +0.00 g/gm; Darcy Kuemper (LAK) -0.02 g/gm.+0.02
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
LAK
Actual (from shift data)L1
14:44
D2
14:22
20:23
92Clarke
20:10
Injured / Scratched
- Jakub Dvorakinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Jan Jenikinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Mats Zuccarelloinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Alex Turcotteinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Kevin Fialainjured-reserve · Left Lower Leg (Surgery)
NYR
Actual (from shift data)L1
12:30
L2
12:56
L4
4:52
D2
10:25
22:07
20:24
Injured / Scratched
- Igor Shesterkinlong-term-injured-reserve · Right Knee (Surgery)
- Joe Velenolong-term-injured-reserve · Right Lower Body
- Joonas Korpisaloinjured-reserve · Foot (Infection)
- Adam Sykorainjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Aidan Thompsoninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice