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SCHEDULEDAmerican Airlines Center · Nov 13
WPGWPG
—@—
DALDAL
WPG rest: 1dDAL rest: 4d

Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

WPGaway
40%
at
DALhome
60%
Win probability20-pt gap
Model pick
DAL · 60% to win

Key signals

Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)InjuriesProjected Goaltending

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

WPG
2.7
–
DAL
3.3

Most likely final: DAL 3–2 WPG

DAL win
60%
WPG win
40%
Goes to OT/SO
24%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. DAL 3 – 2 WPG9%
  2. DAL 2 – 3 WPG7%
  3. DAL 4 – 3 WPG7%
  4. DAL 2 – 1 WPG6%
  5. DAL 3 – 4 WPG6%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
52%
7+ total goals
41%
DAL by 2+
33%
WPG by 2+
17%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team DefenseDAL allowing -11% vs league average, WPG +4%.+0.46
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to DAL.+0.20
  • Team OffenseDAL scoring -5% vs league average, WPG -8% (time-weighted goal model).+0.11
  • InjuriesDAL without Miro Heiskanen, Matt Duchene, Oskar Back; WPG without Nick Bjugstad, Haydn Fleury, Josh Morrissey.-0.10
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jake Oettinger (DAL) +0.02 g/gm; Stuart Skinner (WPG) -0.05 g/gm.+0.07
  • Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: DAL 3.39 vs WPG 2.72 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.04

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

WPG

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
12:55
81Connor
19:16
55Scheifele
20:08
13Vilardi
16:57
L2
5:22
91Perfetti
15:34
C
17Lowry
14:21
L3
4:22
9Iafallo
13:59
61Björck
15:06
62Niederreiter
14:26
L4
2:39
77Bauer
8:25
36Barron
14:47
27Rosén
10:36
D1
12:42
4Pionk
22:55
54Samberg
21:39
D2
11:58
2DeMelo
19:59
24Fleury
16:43
D3
9:28
57Salomonsson
19:19
38Ferraro
13:55
74Skinner
29:09
Starter
33Stevenson
30:51
Backup

Injured / Scratched

DAL

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
10:19
18Steel
18:19
53Johnston
19:48
96Rantanen
18:50
L2
8:17
21Robertson
16:38
24Hintz
16:55
91Seguin
15:50
L3
8:01
14Benn
15:45
25Hyry
15:23
16Perron
11:31
L4
6:41
22Kiviranta
9:06
49Hryckowian
12:29
15Blackwell
9:18
D1
17:09
4Heiskanen
26:12
23Lindell
23:29
D2
16:54
55Harley
22:49
5Lundkvist
20:29
D3
10:28
6Bichsel
12:55
57Myers
12:14
29Oettinger
60:00
Starter
1DeSmith
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice