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SCHEDULEDDelta Center · Nov 15
—@—
SJS rest: 2dUTA rest: 1d

San Jose Sharks at Utah Mammoth: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

SJSaway
40%
at
UTAhome
60%
Win probability20-pt gap
Model pick
UTA · 60% to win

Key signals

Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesTeam Defense (Goal Model)Recent Form & Shot Metrics

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

SJS
2.9
–
UTA
3.5

Most likely final: UTA 3–2 SJS

UTA win
60%
SJS win
40%
Goes to OT/SO
23%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. UTA 3 – 2 SJS8%
  2. UTA 4 – 3 SJS7%
  3. UTA 2 – 3 SJS7%
  4. UTA 3 – 4 SJS6%
  5. UTA 2 – 1 SJS5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
57%
7+ total goals
47%
UTA by 2+
33%
SJS by 2+
18%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team OffenseUTA scoring +6% vs league average, SJS -12% (time-weighted goal model).+0.55
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to UTA.+0.20
  • InjuriesUTA without Kailer Yamamoto, Nate Schmidt, John Marino; SJS without Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg.-0.17
  • Team DefenseUTA allowing +5% vs league average, SJS +10%.+0.15
  • Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: UTA 3.58 vs SJS 2.72 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.10
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Karel Vejmelka (UTA) -0.11 g/gm; Yaroslav Askarov (SJS) -0.06 g/gm.-0.05

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

SJS

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
15:19
18:23
22:56
17:00
L2
11:49
19:22
17:19
21:10
L3
9:24
16:41
10:28
16:12
L4
6:17
8:04
9:39
9:17
D1
16:37
25:35
18:55
D2
15:13
21:25
D3
11:22
12:42
11:58
58:13
Starter
Backup

Injured / Scratched

UTA

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
15:14
19:18
18:26
19:16
L2
9:53
12:25
19:08
18:10
L3
11:03
72Lee
14:21
13:41
13:41
L4
8:12
12:22
15:20
10:10
D1
12:34
24:32
22:02
D2
13:45
18:28
17:51
D3
11:19
14:42
13:42
58:25
Starter
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice