STLaway
51%at
NYRhome
49%Win probability2-pt gap
Model pick
STL · 51% to win
Key signals
Home IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Projected GoaltendingInjuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALMadison Square Garden · Nov 4
STL rest: 3dNYR rest: 2d
St. Louis Blues at New York Rangers: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Rangers beat Blues 3–1
- O. Bjorkstrand scored the game-winner at 9:01 of the third.
- The Rangers scored first and led the rest of the way.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- D. Garand stopped 32 of 33 shots (.970) for the win.
- J. Hofer kept the Blues in it with 28 saves (.933).
- Model miss: the Rangers won with only a 49% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starD. Garand
NYR · .970 SV%
- 2nd starA. Fox
NYR · 1G 1A
- 3rd starO. Bjorkstrand
NYR · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
No scoring
3rd
- 9:01NYRO. BjorkstrandVideoAssists: E. Tolvanen, W. Cuylle0–2
- 17:59NYRE. TolvanenENVideoAssists: J. Miller, A. Fox0–3
- 19:01STLP. SuterVideoAssists: A. Toropchenko, T. Lindstein1–3
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
STLNYR
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 21 | 23 |
| Blocked | 18 | 17 |
| Power Play | 0/6 | 0/3 |
| Faceoff % | 49.3 | 50.7 |
| Corsi % | 49.2 | 50.8 |
| xG | 2.77 | 4.12 |
| Giveaways | 19 | 18 |
| Takeaways | 6 | 5 |
New York Rangers
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 20:10 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 13:22 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 23:40 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10:59 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 18:19 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 20:01 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:05 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:15 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 08:29 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:54 | |
| -- | -- | 43/44 | -- | .977 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 32/33 | -- | .970 | 00:00 |
St. Louis Blues
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:17 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:55 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 10:55 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:05 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 07:21 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 18:14 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:22 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 17:28 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:12 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 17:20 | |
| -- | -- | 41/44 | -- | .932 | 58:33 | |
| -- | -- | 28/31 | -- | .903 | 00:00 |
Projected score
STL
3.0
–
NYR
2.9
Most likely final: NYR 2–3 STL · Actual: 3–1
- NYR win
- 49%
- STL win
- 51%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- NYR 2 – 3 STL8%
- NYR 3 – 2 STL8%
- NYR 3 – 4 STL7%
- NYR 4 – 3 STL7%
- NYR 1 – 2 STL6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 51%
- 7+ total goals
- 41%
- NYR by 2+
- 23%
- STL by 2+
- 25%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to NYR.+0.14
- Team OffenseNYR scoring -2% vs league average, STL +2% (time-weighted goal model).-0.12
- Team DefenseNYR allowing -0% vs league average, STL -3%.-0.07
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Dylan Garand (NYR) -0.01 g/gm; Joel Hofer (STL) +0.05 g/gm.-0.06
- InjuriesNYR without Joe Veleno, Sean Durzi, Adam Sykora; STL without Logan Mailloux, Colton Parayko, Tyler Tucker.-0.00
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
STL
Actual (from shift data)L2
7:37
L4
6:20
30Hofer
58:33
0:00
Injured / Scratched
- Torey Kruglong-term-injured-reserve · Left Ankle
- Logan Maillouxinjured-reserve · Hand (Surgery)
- Dillon Dubeinjured-reserve · Neck
- Tyler Tuckerinjured-reserve · Left Knee (Surgery)
- Colton Paraykoother · Upper Body
NYR
Actual (from shift data)L2
12:29
L3
5:37
D2
13:51
22:10
20:50
Injured / Scratched
- Joe Velenolong-term-injured-reserve · Right Lower Body
- Aidan Thompsoninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Igor Shesterkinlong-term-injured-reserve · Right Knee (Surgery)
- Adam Sykorainjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Sean Durziother · Undisclosed
- Joonas Korpisaloinjured-reserve · Foot (Infection)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice