VANaway
41%at
SJShome
59%Win probability18-pt gap
Model pick
SJS · 59% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesTeam Offense (Goal Model)Market Consensus Blend
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALSAP Center at San Jose · Oct 30
VAN rest: 1dSJS rest: 1d
Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Sharks beat Canucks 3–2
- M. Marchment scored the game-winner at 10:50 of the third.
- The Sharks came back from a 2-goal deficit.
- Y. Askarov stopped 23 of 25 shots (.920) for the win.
- Power play: SJS 1/5, VAN 0/3.
- W. Smith led all scorers with 2 goals and 0 assists.
- HabsMetrics model had the Sharks as 59% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starW. Smith
SJS · 2G 0A
- 2nd starM. Marchment
SJS · 1G 1A
- 3rd starE. Pettersson
VAN · 0G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
- 13:21VAND. O'ConnorVideoAssists: E. Pettersson1–0
3rd
- 8:00SJSW. SmithPPVideoAssists: D. Orlov, M. Marchment2–1
- 10:39SJSW. SmithVideoAssists: M. Celebrini, M. Kesselring2–2
- 10:50SJSM. MarchmentVideoAssists: K. Sherwood, N. Allan2–3
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
VANSJS
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 17 | 27 |
| Blocked | 10 | 13 |
| Power Play | 0/3 | 1/5 |
| Faceoff % | 51.2 | 48.8 |
| Corsi % | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| xG | 2.66 | 2.60 |
| Giveaways | 20 | 18 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 3 |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17:44 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17:36 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 22:56 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 18:11 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 18:01 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:36 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 17:42 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | |
| -- | -- | 33/35 | -- | .943 | 59:37 | |
| -- | -- | 23/25 | -- | .920 | 00:00 |
Vancouver Canucks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21:25 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13:21 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 27:03 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 17:21 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:26 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:39 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:15 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:14 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | |
| -- | -- | 32/35 | -- | .914 | 56:27 | |
| -- | -- | 21/24 | -- | .875 | 00:00 |
Projected score
VAN
3.1
–
SJS
3.6
Most likely final: SJS 4–3 VAN · Actual: 3–2
- SJS win
- 59%
- VAN win
- 41%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 22%
Likeliest scorelines
- SJS 4 – 3 VAN7%
- SJS 3 – 2 VAN7%
- SJS 3 – 4 VAN6%
- SJS 2 – 3 VAN6%
- SJS 5 – 4 VAN4%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 64%
- 7+ total goals
- 53%
- SJS by 2+
- 33%
- VAN by 2+
- 19%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseSJS allowing +7% vs league average, VAN +25%.+0.47
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to SJS.+0.15
- InjuriesSJS without Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg.-0.10
- Team OffenseSJS scoring -6% vs league average, VAN -3% (time-weighted goal model).-0.09
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.08
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Yaroslav Askarov (SJS) -0.00 g/gm; Leevi Meriläinen (VAN) +0.00 g/gm.-0.01
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
VAN
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Akil Thomasinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Mackenzie MacEacherninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Thatcher Demkoinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
SJS
Actual (from shift data)L4
6:09
30Askarov
59:37
0:00
Injured / Scratched
- Igor Chernyshovinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Kyle Keyserinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Alexander Wennberginjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Quentin Mustyinjured-reserve · Upper Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice