EDMaway
58%at
TORhome
42%Win probability16-pt gap
Model pick
EDM · 58% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesRecent Form & Shot Metrics
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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SCHEDULEDScotiabank Arena · Nov 15
EDM rest: 2dTOR rest: 1d
Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Projected score
EDM
3.3
–
TOR
2.8
Most likely final: TOR 2–3 EDM
- TOR win
- 43%
- EDM win
- 57%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- TOR 2 – 3 EDM9%
- TOR 3 – 2 EDM8%
- TOR 3 – 4 EDM7%
- TOR 4 – 3 EDM6%
- TOR 1 – 2 EDM5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 53%
- 7+ total goals
- 43%
- TOR by 2+
- 19%
- EDM by 2+
- 30%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseTOR allowing +5% vs league average, EDM -2%.-0.21
- Team OffenseTOR scoring +6% vs league average, EDM +13% (time-weighted goal model).-0.21
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to TOR.+0.20
- InjuriesTOR without Morgan Rielly, Kirill Marchenko, Nick Blankenburg; EDM without Isaac Howard, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark.-0.14
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) -0.05 g/gm; Tristan Jarry (EDM) -0.01 g/gm.-0.05
- Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: TOR 2.95 vs EDM 3.24 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.03
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
EDM
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L2
12:33
D3
12:06
14:26
49Emberson
12:41
Injured / Scratched
- Isaac Howardday-to-day · Knee
- Atro Leppaneninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Zach Hymaninjured-reserve · Neck
- Devon Leviinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Alec Regulalong-term-injured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Matt Savoielong-term-injured-reserve · Lower Body
- Mattias Janmarkinjured-reserve · Undisclosed (Surgery)
- Frederik Anderseninjured-reserve · Knee
TOR
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
D3
12:15
18:22
28Stecher
16:48
Injured / Scratched
- Kirill Marchenkoinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Elvis Merzlikinslong-term-injured-reserve · Shoulder (Surgery)
- Nick Blankenburginjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Marshall Rifaiinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- John Tavaresinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Max Domilong-term-injured-reserve · Back (Surgery)
- Cade Webberinjured-reserve · Elbow
- William Villeneuveinjured-reserve · Knee (Surgery)
- Miles Woodlong-term-injured-reserve · Undisclosed
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice