COLaway
59%at
TORhome
41%Win probability18-pt gap
Model pick
COL · 59% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)InjuriesHome IceRecent Form & Shot MetricsTeam Defense (Goal Model)
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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SCHEDULEDScotiabank Arena · Nov 11
COL rest: 2dTOR rest: 1d
Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Projected score
COL
3.4
–
TOR
2.9
Most likely final: TOR 2–3 COL
- TOR win
- 41%
- COL win
- 59%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- TOR 2 – 3 COL8%
- TOR 3 – 4 COL7%
- TOR 3 – 2 COL7%
- TOR 4 – 3 COL6%
- TOR 1 – 2 COL5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 57%
- 7+ total goals
- 47%
- TOR by 2+
- 18%
- COL by 2+
- 33%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseTOR scoring +6% vs league average, COL +15% (time-weighted goal model).-0.26
- InjuriesTOR without Morgan Rielly, Kirill Marchenko, Nick Blankenburg; COL without Josh Manson.-0.21
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to TOR.+0.20
- Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: TOR 2.98 vs COL 3.37 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.15
- Team DefenseTOR allowing +5% vs league average, COL +1%.-0.14
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) -0.05 g/gm; Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) -0.03 g/gm.-0.03
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
COL
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
Injured / Scratched
- Logan O'Connorday-to-day · Personal
- Josh Mansonother · Left Ankle
- Zachary L'Heureuxlong-term-injured-reserve · Upper Body
TOR
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
D3
7:44
16:45
36Mermis
9:52
Injured / Scratched
- Elvis Merzlikinslong-term-injured-reserve · Shoulder (Surgery)
- Nick Blankenburginjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Marshall Rifaiinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Kirill Marchenkoinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- John Tavaresinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Max Domilong-term-injured-reserve · Back (Surgery)
- Cade Webberinjured-reserve · Elbow
- William Villeneuveinjured-reserve · Knee (Surgery)
- Chris Tanevinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Miles Woodlong-term-injured-reserve · Undisclosed
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice