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SCHEDULEDRogers Place · Nov 12
PHIPHI
—@—
EDMEDM
PHI rest: 1dEDM rest: 1d
PHIaway
36%
at
EDMhome
64%
Win probability28-pt gap
Model pick
EDM · 64% to win

Key signals

Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesTeam Defense (Goal Model)Projected Goaltending

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

PHI
2.6
–
EDM
3.4

Most likely final: EDM 3–2 PHI

EDM win
64%
PHI win
36%
Goes to OT/SO
23%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. EDM 3 – 2 PHI9%
  2. EDM 4 – 3 PHI7%
  3. EDM 2 – 3 PHI7%
  4. EDM 2 – 1 PHI6%
  5. EDM 3 – 4 PHI6%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
52%
7+ total goals
41%
EDM by 2+
36%
PHI by 2+
15%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team OffenseEDM scoring +13% vs league average, PHI -14% (time-weighted goal model).+0.81
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to EDM.+0.17
  • InjuriesEDM without Isaac Howard, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark; PHI without Nikita Grebenkin, Rasmus Ristolainen.-0.06
  • Team DefenseEDM allowing -1% vs league average, PHI -3%.-0.05
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Tristan Jarry (EDM) -0.01 g/gm; Joseph Woll (PHI) -0.00 g/gm.-0.00

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

PHI

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
9:43
22Dvorak
17:03
46Zegras
17:08
11Konecny
13:58
L2
9:43
27Cates
13:02
39Michkov
15:31
94Martone
14:32
L3
8:46
71Foerster
13:21
86Barkey
15:49
74Tippett
13:31
L4
8:57
14Couturier
15:14
52Acciari
16:04
54Knuble
10:44
D1
14:32
6Sanheim
23:28
9Drysdale
21:26
D2
14:11
8York
20:57
59Bonk
17:47
D3
12:08
24Seeler
17:27
44Benoit
15:16
80Vladar
60:00
Starter
53Woll
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

EDM

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
13:19
29Draisaitl
20:08
97McDavid
23:22
92Podkolzin
16:15
L2
12:33
34Dach
14:53
93Nugent-Hopkins
20:13
42Kapanen
21:31
L3
8:44
26Formenton
12:33
16Dickinson
11:55
21Joseph
12:04
L4
7:46
19Hallander
8:38
10Frederic
9:22
43Michaels
10:11
D1
17:47
2Bouchard
25:42
14Ekholm
21:57
D2
17:09
6Shea
21:08
5Murphy
19:48
D3
12:06
85Mukhamadullin
14:26
49Emberson
12:41
35Jarry
0:00
Starter
90Tomkins
59:13
Backup

Injured / Scratched

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice