Skip to content
← Back to Dashboard
FINAL / OTPPG Paints Arena · Oct 29
UTA rest: 0dPIT rest: 4d

Utah Mammoth at Pittsburgh Penguins: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

Game analysis

Mammoth beat Penguins 4–3 in overtime

  • M. Sergachev scored the game-winner at 3:27 in overtime.
  • A back-and-forth game: the lead changed hands 2 times.
  • S. Cossa stopped 30 of 33 shots (.909) for the win.
  • L. Cooley recorded a hat trick.
  • Model miss: the Mammoth won with only a 50% pre-game win probability.

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.

Three stars

  1. 1st star
    L. Cooley

    UTA · 3G 0A

  2. 2nd star
    M. Sergachev

    UTA · 1G 0A

  3. 3rd star
    B. Kindel

    PIT · 1G 1A

Scoring summary

Period by Period

Stats not yet available

Team Stats

UTAPIT
Team statistics comparison
Shots----
Hits257
Blocked2012
Power Play0/10/1
Faceoff %56.143.9
Corsi %49.650.4
xG3.872.98
Giveaways1619
Takeaways64

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player statistics for Pittsburgh Penguins
PlayerGAP+/-SOGTOI
112+1316:32
022+1416:23
011+1016:15
1010318:31
0110119:08
101-2121:33
000-1117:03
000-1112:45
000-1116:43
000-1112:59
----48/52--.92363:27
----30/34--.88200:00

Utah Mammoth

Player statistics for Utah Mammoth
PlayerGAP+/-SOGTOI
303+2518:36
011-2217:53
011+2117:29
011+1119:44
1010226:16
011+1316:17
011+3419:54
0000315:23
000-1016:00
000-1112:34
----42/45--.93363:07
----31/34--.91200:00
UTAaway
50%
at
PIThome
51%
Win probabilityToss-up
Model pick
Toss-up · No clear favourite · UTA 50% · PIT 51%

Key signals

Home IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)Projected GoaltendingTeam Defense (Goal Model)Injuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

UTA
3.3
–
PIT
3.3

Most likely final: PIT 3–2 UTA · Actual: 3–4

PIT win
51%
UTA win
50%
Goes to OT/SO
23%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. PIT 3 – 2 UTA7%
  2. PIT 2 – 3 UTA7%
  3. PIT 4 – 3 UTA7%
  4. PIT 3 – 4 UTA7%
  5. PIT 2 – 1 UTA4%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
61%
7+ total goals
50%
PIT by 2+
25%
UTA by 2+
25%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to PIT.+0.15
  • Team OffensePIT scoring +4% vs league average, UTA +8% (time-weighted goal model).-0.10
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Arturs Silovs (PIT) -0.03 g/gm; Karel Vejmelka (UTA) -0.07 g/gm.+0.04
  • Team DefensePIT allowing +5% vs league average, UTA +3%.-0.04
  • InjuriesPIT without Bryan Rust, Justin Brazeau, Elmer Soderblom; UTA without John Marino, Michael Carcone, Maveric Lamoureux.-0.04

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

UTA

Actual (from shift data)
L1
14:15
17:29
19:54
18:36
L2
11:51
17:53
15:23
16:00
L3
12:47
72Lee
15:21
16:17
15:19
L4
7:20
50But
8:59
13:43
12:34
D1
16:01
26:16
23:57
D2
15:13
22:43
19:44
D3
9:14
15:17
13:16
63:07
Starter
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

PIT

Actual (from shift data)
L1
14:09
17:03
19:30
18:31
L2
13:44
16:23
16:32
16:15
L3
10:55
14:37
13:29
16:43
L4
10:02
12:11
12:59
12:45
D1
17:32
23:03
21:10
D2
16:13
19:49
19:08
D3
15:21
21:33
16:40
63:27
Starter
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice