Wings vs Lightning Score & Box Score — Sat, Nov 14, 2026

SCHEDULEDBenchmark International Arena · Nov 15

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DET rest: 1dTBL rest: 1d

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

DETaway

33%

TBLhome

67%

Win probability34-pt gap

Model pick

TBL · 67% to win

Key signals

Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceRecent Form & Shot MetricsInjuriesProjected Goaltending

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

DET

2.5

–

TBL

3.5

Most likely final: TBL 3–2 DET

TBL win: 65%
DET win: 35%
Goes to OT/SO: 23%

Likeliest scorelines

TBL 3 – 2 DET9%
TBL 4 – 3 DET7%
TBL 2 – 3 DET7%
TBL 2 – 1 DET6%
TBL 3 – 4 DET5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 52%
7+ total goals: 42%
TBL by 2+: 38%
DET by 2+: 14%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Team OffenseTBL scoring +9% vs league average, DET -6% (time-weighted goal model).+0.46
Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to TBL.+0.20
InjuriesTBL without Yanni Gourde; DET without Dylan Larkin, Simon Edvinsson, Albert Johansson.+0.10
Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: TBL 3.34 vs DET 2.53 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.+0.08
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) -0.04 g/gm; John Gibson (DET) -0.11 g/gm.+0.07
Team DefenseTBL allowing -3% vs league average, DET -1%.+0.05