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SCHEDULEDCentre Bell · Nov 11
MINMIN
—@—
MTLMTL
MIN rest: 2dMTL rest: 2d
MINaway
49%
at
MTLhome
51%
Win probability2-pt gap
Model pick
MTL · 51% to win

Key signals

Team Defense (Goal Model)score_goals_modelHome IceProjected GoaltendingTeam Offense (Goal Model)

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

MIN
2.8
–
MTL
2.9

Most likely final: MTL 3–2 MIN

MTL win
51%
MIN win
49%
Goes to OT/SO
25%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. MTL 3 – 2 MIN9%
  2. MTL 2 – 3 MIN9%
  3. MTL 4 – 3 MIN7%
  4. MTL 2 – 1 MIN6%
  5. MTL 3 – 4 MIN6%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
48%
7+ total goals
38%
MTL by 2+
25%
MIN by 2+
23%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team DefenseMTL allowing -2% vs league average, MIN -16%.-0.44
  • Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: MTL 2.96 vs MIN 2.97 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.+0.30
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to MTL.+0.19
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jacob Fowler (MTL) +0.08 g/gm; Calvin Pickard (MIN) -0.04 g/gm.+0.12
  • Team OffenseMTL scoring +4% vs league average, MIN +6% (time-weighted goal model).-0.06
  • InjuriesMTL without Josh Anderson, Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov; MIN without Michael McCarron, Jared Spurgeon, Brock Faber.-0.03

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

MIN

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
17:36
97Kaprizov
24:36
14Eriksson Ek
21:21
12Boldy
22:04
L2
5:34
20Coleman
15:29
47McCarron
12:49
10Brink
12:34
L3
4:40
22Yurov
13:31
13Trenin
12:45
49Shabanov
13:45
L4
4:37
19Pitlick
6:43
78Sturm
11:15
38Hartman
12:59
D1
12:36
3Maatta
24:25
25Brodin
23:21
D2
6:22
43Hughes
29:54
RD
D3
5:15
24Bogosian
14:46
26Kiersted
9:42
30Wallstedt
60:00
Starter
31Pickard
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

MTL

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
11:45
20Slafkovský
17:29
91Kapanen
15:56
13Caufield
16:21
L2
8:58
22Kreider
12:49
15Newhook
17:47
17Anderson
17:06
L3
6:56
85Texier
11:58
24Danault
19:21
76Bolduc
12:19
L4
5:38
63Xhekaj
6:19
71Evans
15:24
77Dach
13:11
D1
12:37
8Matheson
23:25
21Guhle
22:47
D2
13:28
48Hutson
22:04
53Dobson
19:35
D3
5:47
45Carrier
20:08
42Engstrom
10:23
32Fowler
59:38
Starter
75Dobes
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

  • Bryce Pickfordinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Lucas Condottainjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Nick Suzukiother · Upper Body
  • Sam Montembeaultinjured-reserve · Lower Body
  • Ivan Demidovinjured-reserve · Lower Body

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice