MINaway
54%at
UTAhome
46%Win probability8-pt gap
Model pick
MIN · 54% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)Projected GoaltendingInjuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALDelta Center · Oct 28
MIN rest: 1dUTA rest: 2d
Game analysis
Wild beat Mammoth 3–1
- K. Kaprizov scored the game-winner on the power play at 0:48 of the third.
- The Wild scored first and led the rest of the way.
- J. Wallstedt stopped 26 of 27 shots (.963) for the win.
- Power play: MIN 2/6, UTA 0/4.
- The Mammoth dominated the dot, winning 62% of faceoffs.
- HabsMetrics model had the Wild as 54% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starK. Kaprizov
MIN · 1G 1A
- 2nd starJ. Wallstedt
MIN · .963 SV%
- 3rd starJ. Eriksson Ek
MIN · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
No scoring
2nd
- 15:04MINJ. Eriksson EkPPAssists: Q. Hughes, K. Kaprizov1–0
3rd
- 0:48MINK. KaprizovPPAssists: M. Boldy, Q. Hughes2–0
- 11:44MINM. Shabanov3–0
- 18:39UTAL. CooleyAssists: N. Schmaltz, M. Sergachev3–1
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
MINUTA
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 24 | 22 |
| Blocked | 20 | 20 |
| Power Play | 2/6 | 0/4 |
| Faceoff % | 38.0 | 62.0 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 2.93 | 2.97 |
| Giveaways | 11 | 10 |
| Takeaways | 5 | 1 |
Utah Mammoth
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:10 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 18:27 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 20:39 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 20:46 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 07:09 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:06 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | |
| -- | -- | 41/44 | -- | .932 | 57:22 | |
| -- | -- | 27/30 | -- | .900 | 00:00 |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 29:54 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 24:36 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:45 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 21:21 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:04 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:34 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:45 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 06:43 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15:29 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:31 | |
| -- | -- | 43/44 | -- | .977 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 26/27 | -- | .963 | 00:00 |
Projected score
MIN
3.1
–
UTA
2.9
Most likely final: UTA 2–3 MIN · Actual: 1–3
- UTA win
- 46%
- MIN win
- 54%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- UTA 2 – 3 MIN8%
- UTA 3 – 2 MIN8%
- UTA 3 – 4 MIN7%
- UTA 4 – 3 MIN7%
- UTA 1 – 2 MIN5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 53%
- 7+ total goals
- 43%
- UTA by 2+
- 21%
- MIN by 2+
- 27%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseUTA allowing +3% vs league average, MIN -11%.-0.44
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to UTA.+0.16
- Team OffenseUTA scoring +9% vs league average, MIN +4% (time-weighted goal model).+0.16
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Karel Vejmelka (UTA) -0.07 g/gm; Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) +0.06 g/gm.-0.13
- InjuriesUTA without John Marino, Michael Carcone, Maveric Lamoureux; MIN without Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno, Brock Faber.+0.01
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
MIN
Actual (from shift data)L1
17:36
Injured / Scratched
- Marcus Folignoinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Filip Gustavssonlong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- Nick Folignoinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Brock Faberinjured-reserve · Skull (Surgery)
UTA
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- John Marinoother · Upper Body
- Michael Carconeinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Maveric Lamoureuxinjured-reserve · Shoulder
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice