DETaway
44%at
FLAhome
56%Win probability12-pt gap
Model pick
FLA · 56% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesProjected Goaltendingscore_goals_model
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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SCHEDULEDAmerant Bank Arena · Nov 13
DET rest: 1dFLA rest: 1d
Projected score
DET
2.8
–
FLA
3.2
Most likely final: FLA 3–2 DET
- FLA win
- 56%
- DET win
- 44%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- FLA 3 – 2 DET9%
- FLA 2 – 3 DET8%
- FLA 4 – 3 DET7%
- FLA 3 – 4 DET6%
- FLA 2 – 1 DET6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 53%
- 7+ total goals
- 42%
- FLA by 2+
- 29%
- DET by 2+
- 20%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseFLA scoring +0% vs league average, DET -6% (time-weighted goal model).+0.19
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to FLA.+0.19
- InjuriesFLA without Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich; DET without Dylan Larkin, Simon Edvinsson, Albert Johansson.-0.09
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Akira Schmid (FLA) -0.04 g/gm; John Gibson (DET) -0.11 g/gm.+0.07
- Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: FLA 3.25 vs DET 2.87 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.+0.05
- Team DefenseFLA allowing +0% vs league average, DET -1%.-0.05
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
DET
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L2
13:11
Injured / Scratched
- Dylan Larkininjured-reserve · Suspension
- Simon Edvinssoninjured-reserve · Contract Dispute
- Albert Johanssonday-to-day · Undisclosed
- Marco Kasperinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Mason Appletoninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
FLA
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L2
12:11
Injured / Scratched
- Brad Marchandinjured-reserve · Left Leg
- Aleksander Barkovlong-term-injured-reserve · Left Lower Body
- Jonah Gadjovichlong-term-injured-reserve · Upper Body (Surgery)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice