STLaway
54%at
DEThome
46%Win probability8-pt gap
Model pick
STL · 54% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceProjected GoaltendingInjuriesTeam Defense (Goal Model)
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALLittle Caesars Arena · Oct 31
STL rest: 0dDET rest: 1d
St. Louis Blues at Detroit Red Wings: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Blues beat Red Wings 5–4
- A. Kaskimaki scored the game-winner at 13:15 of the third.
- The Blues came back from a 2-goal deficit.
- J. Hofer stopped 23 of 27 shots (.852) for the win.
- The Blues won despite being outshot 27–15.
- Power play: STL 0/3, DET 1/2.
- HabsMetrics model had the Blues as 54% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starJ. Barron
STL · 1G 1A
- 2nd starL. Raymond
DET · 1G 1A
- 3rd starJ. Snuggerud
STL · 1G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
- 2:29STLD. DvorskyVideoAssists: J. Barron, D. Holloway1–0
- 8:13DETJ. CompherVideoAssists: M. Rasmussen1–1
2nd
- 0:41DETK. KolesarVideoAssists: C. Mazur, J. Faulk1–2
- 13:14DETL. RaymondVideo1–3
- 19:32STLJ. SnuggerudVideoAssists: R. Thomas, P. Broberg2–3
3rd
- 3:29DETE. FinniePPVideoAssists: L. Raymond, M. Seider2–4
- 8:37STLP. BuchnevichVideoAssists: J. Neighbours3–4
- 12:57STLJ. BarronVideoAssists: J. Snuggerud4–4
- 13:15STLA. KaskimakiVideoAssists: A. Toropchenko, P. Suter5–4
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
STLDET
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 21 | 30 |
| Blocked | 12 | 18 |
| Power Play | 0/3 | 1/2 |
| Faceoff % | 54.7 | 45.3 |
| Corsi % | 48.0 | 52.0 |
| xG | 2.38 | 2.15 |
| Giveaways | 20 | 16 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 5 |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 19:18 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 07:15 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 14:01 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:15 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 21:13 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 24:33 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 22:03 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:28 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:40 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:01 | |
| -- | -- | 23/28 | -- | .821 | 57:00 | |
| -- | -- | 10/15 | -- | .667 | 00:00 |
St. Louis Blues
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 18:59 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16:00 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:03 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 23:48 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:02 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:51 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 16:56 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 14:21 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 27:09 | |
| -- | -- | 35/39 | -- | .897 | 59:28 | |
| -- | -- | 24/28 | -- | .857 | 00:00 |
Projected score
STL
2.9
–
DET
2.7
Most likely final: DET 2–3 STL · Actual: 4–5
- DET win
- 46%
- STL win
- 54%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 26%
Likeliest scorelines
- DET 2 – 3 STL9%
- DET 3 – 2 STL9%
- DET 1 – 2 STL7%
- DET 2 – 1 STL7%
- DET 3 – 4 STL6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 45%
- 7+ total goals
- 35%
- DET by 2+
- 20%
- STL by 2+
- 26%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseDET scoring -7% vs league average, STL +0% (time-weighted goal model).-0.21
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to DET.+0.17
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: John Gibson (DET) -0.06 g/gm; Joel Hofer (STL) +0.07 g/gm.-0.13
- InjuriesDET without Dylan Larkin, Simon Edvinsson, Marco Kasper; STL without Colton Parayko, Ross Johnston, Tyler Tucker.-0.05
- Team DefenseDET allowing -3% vs league average, STL -4%.-0.02
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
STL
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Torey Kruglong-term-injured-reserve · Left Ankle
- Colton Paraykoother · Upper Body
- Logan Maillouxinjured-reserve · Hand (Surgery)
- Ross Johnstoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Dillon Dubeinjured-reserve · Neck
- Tyler Tuckerinjured-reserve · Left Knee (Surgery)
DET
Actual (from shift data)L2
13:11
Injured / Scratched
- Dylan Larkininjured-reserve · Suspension
- Simon Edvinssoninjured-reserve · Contract Dispute
- Albert Johanssonother · Undisclosed
- Marco Kasperinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Mason Appletoninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice