WPGaway
39%at
FLAhome
61%Win probability22-pt gap
Model pick
FLA · 61% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Market Consensus BlendRest / Back-to-BackHome IceProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALAmerant Bank Arena · Oct 30
WPG rest: 0dFLA rest: 1d
Winnipeg Jets at Florida Panthers: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Panthers beat Jets 5–2
- S. Jones scored the game-winner on the power play at 15:24 of the second.
- The Panthers scored first and led the rest of the way.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- A. Schmid stopped 22 of 24 shots (.917) for the win.
- The Panthers controlled play, outshooting the Jets 38–24.
- HabsMetrics model had the Panthers as 61% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starA. Lundell
FLA · 3G 0A
- 2nd starS. Jones
FLA · 1G 2A
- 3rd starS. Reinhart
FLA · 1G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
- 18:15FLAS. ReinhartPPVideoAssists: C. Verhaeghe, S. Jones0–1
2nd
- 2:38FLAA. LundellVideoAssists: S. Jones0–2
- 9:51WPGK. ConnorPPVideoAssists: M. Scheifele, N. Pionk1–2
- 15:24FLAS. JonesPPVideoAssists: S. Reinhart1–3
3rd
- 8:46WPGM. BarronVideoAssists: D. Mercer, D. DeMelo2–3
- 13:33FLAA. LundellVideoAssists: L. Eller, E. Luostarinen2–4
- 18:21FLAA. LundellENVideoAssists: E. Luostarinen2–5
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
WPGFLA
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 25 | 25 |
| Blocked | 20 | 15 |
| Power Play | 1/4 | 2/5 |
| Faceoff % | 37.3 | 62.7 |
| Corsi % | 41.0 | 59.0 |
| xG | 2.04 | 4.45 |
| Giveaways | 16 | 12 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 2 |
Florida Panthers
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 8 | 16:48 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 1 | 24:16 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 19:46 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 1 | 16:27 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 19:58 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 16:55 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14:58 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 06:07 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:53 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 09:37 | |
| -- | -- | 30/32 | -- | .938 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 22/24 | -- | .917 | 00:00 |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:14 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 15:04 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 20:44 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 23:42 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:39 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 22:18 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:07 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:30 | |
| -- | -- | 42/47 | -- | .894 | 58:06 | |
| -- | -- | 33/38 | -- | .868 | 00:00 |
Projected score
WPG
2.5
–
FLA
3.1
Most likely final: FLA 3–2 WPG · Actual: 5–2
- FLA win
- 61%
- WPG win
- 39%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 25%
Likeliest scorelines
- FLA 3 – 2 WPG10%
- FLA 2 – 3 WPG8%
- FLA 2 – 1 WPG7%
- FLA 4 – 3 WPG7%
- FLA 1 – 2 WPG6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 46%
- 7+ total goals
- 36%
- FLA by 2+
- 32%
- WPG by 2+
- 16%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseFLA scoring -3% vs league average, WPG -9% (time-weighted goal model).+0.18
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.18
- RestWPG on the second night of a back-to-back.+0.16
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to FLA.+0.16
- InjuriesFLA without Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich; WPG without Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey.-0.07
- Team DefenseFLA allowing -2% vs league average, WPG +0%.+0.06
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Akira Schmid (FLA) -0.03 g/gm; Stuart Skinner (WPG) -0.00 g/gm.-0.03
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
WPG
Actual (from shift data)D3
8:19
18:39
24Fleury
15:19
Injured / Scratched
- Nick Bjugstadlong-term-injured-reserve · Left Pectoral (Surgery)
- Garrett Browninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Vladislav Namestnikovinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Josh Morrisseyinjured-reserve · Right Wrist
FLA
Actual (from shift data)L2
12:11
Injured / Scratched
- Brad Marchandinjured-reserve · Left Leg
- Jacob Markstrominjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Aleksander Barkovlong-term-injured-reserve · Left Lower Body
- Jonah Gadjovichlong-term-injured-reserve · Upper Body (Surgery)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice