ANAaway
56%at
VANhome
44%Win probability12-pt gap
Model pick
ANA · 56% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)InjuriesTeam Defense (Goal Model)Market Consensus BlendHome Ice
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALRogers Arena · Nov 4
ANA rest: 1dVAN rest: 3d
Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Ducks beat Canucks 5–4
- C. Gauthier scored the game-winner at 4:11 of the third.
- L. Brossoit stopped 19 of 23 shots (.826) for the win.
- Power play: ANA 3/3, VAN 2/4.
- B. Sennecke led all scorers with 0 goals and 4 assists.
- HabsMetrics model had the Ducks as 56% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starC. Gauthier
ANA · 3G 0A
- 2nd starJ. DeBrusk
VAN · 2G 0A
- 3rd starB. Sennecke
ANA · 0G 4A
Scoring summary
1st
- 4:04ANAM. GranlundPPVideoAssists: B. Sennecke, J. LaCombe1–0
- 6:04VANL. OhgrenPPVideoAssists: M. Rossi, P. Cotter1–1
- 17:07ANAC. GauthierPPVideoAssists: B. Sennecke, J. LaCombe2–1
2nd
- 2:58ANAL. CarlssonSHVideoAssists: P. Mintyukov, M. Granlund3–1
- 8:17VANL. KarlssonVideoAssists: D. O'Connor3–2
- 18:25ANAC. GauthierPPVideoAssists: B. Sennecke, M. Granlund4–2
3rd
- 4:11ANAC. GauthierVideoAssists: B. Sennecke, T. Luneau5–2
- 5:30VANJ. DeBruskPPVideoAssists: E. Pettersson, B. Boeser5–3
- 9:34VANJ. DeBruskVideoAssists: J. Oleksiak, E. Pettersson5–4
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
ANAVAN
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 27 | 25 |
| Blocked | 12 | 13 |
| Power Play | 3/3 | 2/4 |
| Faceoff % | 52.7 | 47.3 |
| Corsi % | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| xG | 3.09 | 2.44 |
| Giveaways | 15 | 15 |
| Takeaways | 1 | 3 |
Vancouver Canucks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19:26 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:09 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21:29 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:38 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 15:53 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10:23 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 16:05 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:05 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 14:50 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | |
| -- | -- | 32/37 | -- | .865 | 58:17 | |
| -- | -- | 17/22 | -- | .773 | 00:00 |
Anaheim Ducks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21:17 | |
| 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 18:31 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 1 | 20:14 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:41 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:03 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:02 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:07 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 09:20 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:57 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:55 | |
| -- | -- | 33/37 | -- | .892 | 59:31 | |
| -- | -- | 19/23 | -- | .826 | 00:00 |
Projected score
ANA
3.8
–
VAN
3.3
Most likely final: VAN 3–4 ANA · Actual: 4–5
- VAN win
- 44%
- ANA win
- 56%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 21%
Likeliest scorelines
- VAN 3 – 4 ANA7%
- VAN 4 – 3 ANA7%
- VAN 2 – 3 ANA6%
- VAN 3 – 2 ANA6%
- VAN 4 – 5 ANA5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 69%
- 7+ total goals
- 59%
- VAN by 2+
- 21%
- ANA by 2+
- 32%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseVAN scoring -5% vs league average, ANA +6% (time-weighted goal model).-0.34
- InjuriesVAN without Filip Chytil; ANA without A.J. Greer, Troy Terry, Ian Moore.+0.26
- Team DefenseVAN allowing +23% vs league average, ANA +13%.-0.25
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.23
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to VAN.+0.14
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Leevi Meriläinen (VAN) -0.01 g/gm; Lukas Dostal (ANA) -0.08 g/gm.+0.07
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
ANA
Actual (from shift data)L4
3:32
Injured / Scratched
- Troy Terrylong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- A.J. Greerinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Ian Mooreinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Ryan Poehlinginjured-reserve · Lower Body
VAN
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Tom Willanderother · Lower Body
- Filip Chytilinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Akil Thomasinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Mackenzie MacEacherninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Thatcher Demkoinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice