BOSaway
59%at
STLhome
41%Win probability18-pt gap
Model pick
BOS · 59% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALEnterprise Center · Oct 30
BOS rest: 1dSTL rest: 1d
Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Blues beat Bruins 4–1
- P. Broberg scored the game-winner at 5:17 of the second.
- J. Hofer stopped 30 of 31 shots (.968) for the win.
- The Blues won despite being outshot 31–18.
- Power play: STL 2/3, BOS 0/2.
- P. Broberg led all scorers with 1 goal and 2 assists.
- Model miss: the Blues won with only a 41% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starR. Thomas
STL · 1G 2A
- 2nd starJ. Hofer
STL · .968 SV%
- 3rd starP. Broberg
STL · 1G 2A
Scoring summary
1st
- 5:28BOSJ. HagensVideoAssists: C. Mittelstadt1–0
- 15:43STLJ. SnuggerudPPVideoAssists: P. Broberg, R. Thomas1–1
2nd
- 5:17STLP. BrobergVideoAssists: C. McMichael, D. Holloway1–2
- 12:08STLR. ThomasVideoAssists: J. Barron1–3
3rd
- 12:42STLJ. NeighboursPPVideoAssists: P. Broberg, R. Thomas1–4
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
BOSSTL
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 29 | 15 |
| Blocked | 6 | 15 |
| Power Play | 0/2 | 2/3 |
| Faceoff % | 55.6 | 44.4 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 2.71 | 2.30 |
| Giveaways | 13 | 16 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 5 |
St. Louis Blues
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 18:40 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 25:55 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:18 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 13:45 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 15:18 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:25 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 15:24 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:49 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:39 | |
| -- | -- | 50/51 | -- | .980 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 31/32 | -- | .969 | 00:00 |
Boston Bruins
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:40 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 21:00 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 08:52 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:51 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21:28 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:18 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 18:28 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:25 | |
| -- | -- | 27/31 | -- | .871 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 14/18 | -- | .778 | 00:00 |
Projected score
BOS
3.2
–
STL
2.7
Most likely final: STL 2–3 BOS · Actual: 4–1
- STL win
- 41%
- BOS win
- 59%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- STL 2 – 3 BOS9%
- STL 3 – 2 BOS8%
- STL 3 – 4 BOS7%
- STL 1 – 2 BOS6%
- STL 4 – 3 BOS6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 50%
- 7+ total goals
- 40%
- STL by 2+
- 17%
- BOS by 2+
- 31%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseSTL allowing -1% vs league average, BOS -11%.-0.33
- Team OffenseSTL scoring -1% vs league average, BOS +10% (time-weighted goal model).-0.30
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to STL.+0.15
- InjuriesSTL without Ross Johnston, Tyler Tucker, Logan Mailloux.-0.06
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Joel Hofer (STL) +0.04 g/gm; Jeremy Swayman (BOS) +0.07 g/gm.-0.02
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
BOS
Actual (from shift data)L2
12:08
L3
7:01
Injured / Scratched
None reported
STL
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Torey Kruglong-term-injured-reserve · Left Ankle
- Ross Johnstoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Dillon Dubeinjured-reserve · Neck
- Tyler Tuckerinjured-reserve · Left Knee (Surgery)
- Logan Maillouxinjured-reserve · Hand (Surgery)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice