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SCHEDULEDRogers Place · Nov 10
NYRNYR
—@—
EDMEDM
NYR rest: 2dEDM rest: 1d
NYRaway
50%
at
EDMhome
50%
Win probabilityToss-up
Model pick
Toss-up · No clear favourite · NYR 50% · EDM 50%

Key signals

score_goals_modelTeam Offense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Defense (Goal Model)Projected Goaltending

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

NYR
3.0
–
EDM
3.0

Most likely final: EDM 3–2 NYR

EDM win
51%
NYR win
49%
Goes to OT/SO
24%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. EDM 3 – 2 NYR8%
  2. EDM 2 – 3 NYR8%
  3. EDM 4 – 3 NYR7%
  4. EDM 3 – 4 NYR7%
  5. EDM 2 – 1 NYR5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
53%
7+ total goals
43%
EDM by 2+
25%
NYR by 2+
24%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: EDM 3.07 vs NYR 3.02 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.51
  • Team OffenseEDM scoring +13% vs league average, NYR -1% (time-weighted goal model).+0.41
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to EDM.+0.19
  • Team DefenseEDM allowing -2% vs league average, NYR -3%.-0.06
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Tristan Jarry (EDM) -0.01 g/gm; Dylan Garand (NYR) +0.02 g/gm.-0.03
  • InjuriesEDM without Isaac Howard, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark; NYR without Joe Veleno, Sean Durzi, Adam Sykora.-0.01

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

NYR

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
14:58
13Lafrenière
19:16
93Zibanejad
18:41
94Perreault
18:44
L2
9:49
24Kartye
19:59
10Miller
21:01
28Bjorkstrand
12:39
L3
6:27
17Tolvanen
12:45
50Cuylle
15:29
16Dorofeyev
15:39
L4
5:01
73Rempe
6:27
42Laba
12:11
49Chmelar
9:49
D1
17:40
23Fox
25:16
44Gavrikov
22:58
D2
17:02
26Pettersson
22:42
4Schneider
20:23
D3
9:43
60Morrow
12:55
29Robertson
11:14
33Garand
0:00
Starter
70Korpisalo
59:14
Backup

Injured / Scratched

EDM

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
6:00
29Draisaitl
24:06
97McDavid
24:25
93Nugent-Hopkins
19:31
L2
92Podkolzin
2:35
34Dach
17:05
42Kapanen
20:00
L3
4:20
26Formenton
10:41
16Dickinson
13:52
21Joseph
11:12
L4
4:17
46Jones
6:10
19Hallander
10:33
43Michaels
12:28
D1
7:29
2Bouchard
24:12
14Ekholm
21:07
D2
7:37
6Shea
23:37
5Murphy
19:26
D3
8:27
85Mukhamadullin
13:56
96Walman
12:18
90Tomkins
57:14
Starter
0Epp
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice