Devils Edge Maple Leafs in a Tight Model Matchup at Scotiabank Arena

SCHEDULEDScotiabank Arena · Nov 9

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NJD rest: 0dTOR rest: 0d

New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

NJDaway

60%

TORhome

40%

Win probability20-pt gap

Model pick

NJD · 60% to win

Key signals

Recent Form & Shot MetricsInjuriesHome IceTeam Defense (Goal Model)Market Consensus Blend

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

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Devils Edge Maple Leafs in a Tight Model Matchup at Scotiabank Arena

The PuckMetrics model makes the New Jersey Devils the narrow favourite in this one, with a 53% win probability against 47% for the Toronto Maple Leafs. That is a coin flip in practical terms, and the model's confidence is low, so treat the pick as a lean rather than a verdict.

The most likely final score is Devils 3, Maple Leafs 2. The model also gives overtime a 23% chance, a reminder that a single goal can decide this game and that extra time is far from unlikely. Scotiabank Arena will host a matchup where the margin between these two sides is small enough that late bounces could easily swing the result.

Expect a close, tightly contested game. Anyone following along should watch for the goal-scoring margins that the model flags as decisive, since those are where this projection could be proven right or wrong.

Model has the Devils a narrow 53% favourite over the Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. Most likely score: NJD 3, TOR 2, with overtime at 23%. Close one. Analytics only, not betting advice. #NHL #LeafsNation

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For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Projected score

NJD

3.5

–

TOR

2.9

Most likely final: TOR 2–3 NJD

TOR win: 40%
NJD win: 60%
Goes to OT/SO: 23%

Likeliest scorelines

TOR 2 – 3 NJD8%
TOR 3 – 4 NJD7%
TOR 3 – 2 NJD7%
TOR 4 – 3 NJD6%
TOR 1 – 2 NJD5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 58%
7+ total goals: 48%
TOR by 2+: 17%
NJD by 2+: 34%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: TOR 2.93 vs NJD 3.42 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.57
InjuriesTOR without Morgan Rielly, Kirill Marchenko, Nick Blankenburg.-0.25
Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to TOR.+0.20
Team DefenseTOR allowing +5% vs league average, NJD -1%.-0.19
Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.09
Team OffenseTOR scoring +6% vs league average, NJD +3% (time-weighted goal model).+0.06
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) -0.05 g/gm; Jake Allen (NJD) -0.05 g/gm.+0.00