VGKaway
51%at
PIThome
49%Win probability2-pt gap
Model pick
VGK · 51% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)InjuriesRest / Back-to-BackHome IceMarket Consensus Blend
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALPPG Paints Arena · Nov 4
VGK rest: 0dPIT rest: 3d
Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Golden Knights beat Penguins 3–2
- T. Hertl scored the game-winner on the power play at 19:25 of the third.
- A back-and-forth game: the lead changed hands 2 times.
- A. Hill stopped 23 of 25 shots (.920) for the win.
- Power play: VGK 2/4, PIT 0/6.
- T. Hertl led all scorers with 2 goals and 0 assists.
- HabsMetrics model had the Golden Knights as 51% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starT. Hertl
VGK · 2G 0A
- 2nd starT. Connelly
VGK · 1G 0A
- 3rd starR. Rakell
PIT · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
VGKPIT
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 29 | 9 |
| Blocked | 18 | 8 |
| Power Play | 2/4 | 0/6 |
| Faceoff % | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 2.69 | 2.69 |
| Giveaways | 14 | 19 |
| Takeaways | 7 | 3 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 19:13 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 16:47 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 14:48 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 21:14 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16:04 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 08:14 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:55 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17:06 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 11:19 | |
| -- | -- | 28/31 | -- | .903 | 59:36 | |
| -- | -- | 20/23 | -- | .870 | 00:00 |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 15:11 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 21:16 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 14:26 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 21:34 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 20:40 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 07:52 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:31 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 09:20 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 08:37 | |
| -- | -- | 35/37 | -- | .946 | 59:58 | |
| -- | -- | 23/25 | -- | .920 | 00:00 |
Projected score
VGK
3.2
–
PIT
3.1
Most likely final: PIT 2–3 VGK · Actual: 2–3
- PIT win
- 49%
- VGK win
- 51%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- PIT 2 – 3 VGK8%
- PIT 3 – 2 VGK8%
- PIT 3 – 4 VGK7%
- PIT 4 – 3 VGK7%
- PIT 1 – 2 VGK5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 57%
- 7+ total goals
- 46%
- PIT by 2+
- 23%
- VGK by 2+
- 26%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefensePIT allowing +5% vs league average, VGK -5%.-0.31
- InjuriesPIT without Evgeni Malkin, Elmer Soderblom, Bryan Rust.-0.21
- RestVGK on the second night of a back-to-back.+0.18
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to PIT.+0.14
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.09
- Team OffensePIT scoring +4% vs league average, VGK +3% (time-weighted goal model).+0.03
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Arturs Silovs (PIT) -0.03 g/gm; Carter Hart (VGK) -0.02 g/gm.-0.01
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
VGK
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Parker Wotherspooninjured-reserve · Upper Body
PIT
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Evgeni Malkinother · Lower Body
- Elmer Soderblominjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Bryan Rustinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Trevor van Riemsdykinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Ryan Gravesinjured-reserve · Knee
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice